Requiem for the Arab Spring

Reminiscent of Somalia, Libya today is fragmented between the territorial control of warlords. Whilst private militias have become a must have commodity for any politician or businessperson hoping to enjoy even a short career in the country.

Tripoli, Libya's capital city, is now almost entirely under the control of Islamic extremists: shadowing the behaviour of Islamic State, symbols of Western culture have been destroyed or banned, liberal-leaning shops have been forced to close, schools are now segregated by gender, art galleries and museums have been destroyed as idolatrous and the authorities are patently unwilling, or unable, to stop over-crowded migrant boats from leaving their shores for Europe (many of which don't complete the journey).

Add to this the public relations disaster that Libya was turning into for the intervening nations: expecting (perhaps naively) that protecting a population from genocide might bring with it a certain moral credibility, instead claims of 'mandate abuse', 'mission creep' and 'regime change' came to almost entirely dominate the after-the-fact analyses.

The major protagonists of the Libyan intervention – Barak Obama, Nicolas Sarkozy and David Cameron – all suffered significant political costs for their good-intentions, both from their own war-weary populations and, inexplicably, from sections of the Arab world who could not see beyond the optics of Western interference in their region.

This brings us to Syria and, of course, Islamic State: At this stage in the Arab Spring the warning signs were not only present, but flashing with a blinding frequency. So, as Syrian street protests (largely peaceful at first) were met with volleys of sniper fire from government forces, the international community were – with the ghosts of Libya still fresh in their minds – suddenly hesitant to act. Nations who openly identify with the internationalism of liberal values were suddenly reticent about coming to the aid of a democratic uprising, despite Assad casually walking past Kofi Annan's "tipping point" of the Houla massacre and Barack Obama's chemical "redline". As Syria was allowed to slowly collapse inward, as Jihadist groups hijacked the popular uprising, as civil war spread, and as mass atrocities became the norm, the long-term legacy of the Arab Spring was beginning to show itself as an international partitioning of concern.

A combination of crises – mass migration and the expanding reach of Islamic State – brought the conflict a little too close to Western shores, and eventually a very reluctant hand was forced. Yet even this said something significant about the failure of the Arab Spring: a comprehensive bombing campaign was no small commitment, yet it came with the explicit promise of 'no boots on the ground'. If liberal values and basic human rights are only worth fighting for if immunity can first be guaranteed, then it begs the question: "what are those values worth in the first place?"

Yet, as bad as things currently are, the tragedy of the Arab Spring has not yet fully been felt. While the world seems unbearably focussed on the Middle East – albeit through the lens of Islamic State – this will not last. Islamic State will eventually follow Al-Qaeda into marginal status, and at that time the enduring legacy of the Arab Spring will likely become more apparent.

Put simply, there will never be another Spring in our life-time. The next time crowds fill the streets of an Arab city demanding enfranchisement, basic freedoms and human rights, the international community will not come to their aid; coalitions of the willing will not form; and support will side with the stability of the established regimes – the emotion felt around the world will not be brotherhood, it will not be hope… it will be fear.