On March 24, 2012 Campbell Newman and the LNP swept into power in Queensland with 63.1% of the two-party preferred vote.
Labor retained only 7 seats in the 89 seat parliament, a loss of 44.
Pundits predicted a long generation of conservative governments.
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So how is it that the latest Newspoll has the parties on 50% each of the vote and a notional loss as they need around 52% of the vote to win enough seats to govern?
63% is a statistical outlier. Most state and federal elections are won by less than 55%. For example Malcolm Fraser's record 1975 landslide was 55.7%
There was always going to be a reversion to the mean, and, on the balance of probabilities, something like a 9-11% swing against the government.
Which leaves Newman and his government responsible for say 4% of the swing against.
Newman is one problem. He's a short aggressive man with the reputation of being often charming, frequently distant, and a bit of a martinet. He is a left-brained, former army engineer and former Lord Mayor of Brisbane who has left an unprecedented civic legacy of congestion-busting transport tunnels and significant debt.
Branded in the City Council as CanDo Campbell he acts first, and consults second and has a pugnacious, often unpredictable style. His entrance to state politics was unconventional. He became opposition leader while not even elected to parliament and contested Ashgrove, a relatively safe ALP electorate.
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Voters only ever really warmed to Newman during the election campaign. Since then his personality has increasingly grated.
Then there is the perception of dishonesty, which cannot be discounted as a motivator of electors.
Labor lost so heavily in 2012 election loss because it misled voters twice.
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