Like what you've read?

On Line Opinion is the only Australian site where you get all sides of the story. We don't
charge, but we need your support. Here’s how you can help.

  • Advertise

    We have a monthly audience of 70,000 and advertising packages from $200 a month.

  • Volunteer

    We always need commissioning editors and sub-editors.

  • Contribute

    Got something to say? Submit an essay.


 The National Forum   Donate   Your Account   On Line Opinion   Forum   Blogs   Polling   About   
On Line Opinion logo ON LINE OPINION - Australia's e-journal of social and political debate

Subscribe!
Subscribe





On Line Opinion is a not-for-profit publication and relies on the generosity of its sponsors, editors and contributors. If you would like to help, contact us.
___________

Syndicate
RSS/XML


RSS 2.0

PNG solution cutting against Rudd

By Graham Young - posted Friday, 26 July 2013


On Thursday 19 when it was announced the PNG solution took the commentariat’s breath away. By Monday and Tuesday 22 and 23 of July, our survey panel was viewing it as problematic.

An analysis of the figures suggests it won’t help Rudd and may indeed harm him by keeping people smuggling on the agenda through to the election, whenever it is held, and guaranteeing he gets the blame for existing and future failures of policy.

Despite the policy appealing to twenty-four percent of Liberal respondents our panel of 1,191, balanced by voting intention, was almost evenly split on whether or not they supported the policy. Forty-one percent supported it, and forty-two percent opposed it.

Advertisement

That is because of substantial opposition from Greens, Liberals and other minor party voters.

Do you support the PNG solution?

ALP

Grn

LP

Minor

Grand Total

Strongly support

39%

6%

8%

23%

21%

Support

31%

8%

15%

11%

20%

Neither support nor oppose

8%

10%

18%

17%

13%

Oppose

6%

17%

16%

18%

13%

Strongly oppose

11%

60%

38%

28%

29%

Unsure

4%

0%

4%

3%

4%

Grand Total

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

Total support

70%

14%

24%

33%

41%

Total oppose

17%

77%

54%

46%

42%

Net support

53%

-63%

-31%

-13%

-1%

 

What is more, even many of those who support the policy don’t think it will work, while many of those who don’t, do. The table below shows the splits on whether respondents think it will work or not.

Will the measure work?

ALP

Grn

LP

Minor

Grand Total

Yes

63%

22%

6%

16%

30%

No

10%

51%

83%

59%

51%

Unsure

27%

26%

11%

24%

20%

Grand Total

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

Net yes

53%

-29%

-77%

-43%

-21%

 
Advertisement

That means that while 70% of Labor voters support it, only 63% think it will work. For Liberals those figures are 24% and 6% and for other minor parties 33% and 16%. For Greens it runs in the other direction. Only 14% of them support it, but 22% expect it to work.

Putting the Greens to one side the gap between support and effectiveness is what one might call the Rudd credibility gap. As the qualitative responses, which I’ll get to shortly, show, Rudd may be honoured by many voters for the conception of policies, but he is damned in the delivery of them by those same voters. This is an issue that goes to trust and to competence and reflects a belief that the policy is about winning an election, not about stemming the boats.

This shows itself in the fact that the policy is a net vote loser for Labor. Given that both the major parties are a long way short of 50% of the vote the next election is about preferences. So, while Liberal voters are more turned-off by the policy than Labor voters are turned-on, the real electoral pain comes from the fact that Greens voters are a net 50% less likely to vote Labor and the other minor parties net 26%.

  1. Pages:
  2. Page 1
  3. 2
  4. 3
  5. All


Discuss in our Forums

See what other readers are saying about this article!

Click here to read & post comments.

140 posts so far.

Share this:
reddit this reddit thisbookmark with del.icio.us Del.icio.usdigg thisseed newsvineSeed NewsvineStumbleUpon StumbleUponsubmit to propellerkwoff it

About the Author

Graham Young is chief editor and the publisher of On Line Opinion. He is executive director of the Australian Institute for Progress, an Australian think tank based in Brisbane, and the publisher of On Line Opinion.

Other articles by this Author

All articles by Graham Young

Creative Commons LicenseThis work is licensed under a Creative Commons License.

Photo of Graham Young
Article Tools
Comment 140 comments
Print Printable version
Subscribe Subscribe
Email Email a friend
Advertisement

About Us Search Discuss Feedback Legals Privacy