On Thursday 19 when it was announced the PNG solution took the commentariat’s breath away. By Monday and Tuesday 22 and 23 of July, our survey panel was viewing it as problematic.
An analysis of the figures suggests it won’t help Rudd and may indeed harm him by keeping people smuggling on the agenda through to the election, whenever it is held, and guaranteeing he gets the blame for existing and future failures of policy.
Despite the policy appealing to twenty-four percent of Liberal respondents our panel of 1,191, balanced by voting intention, was almost evenly split on whether or not they supported the policy. Forty-one percent supported it, and forty-two percent opposed it.
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That is because of substantial opposition from Greens, Liberals and other minor party voters.
Do you support the PNG solution?
|
ALP
|
Grn
|
LP
|
Minor
|
Grand Total
|
Strongly support
|
39%
|
6%
|
8%
|
23%
|
21%
|
Support
|
31%
|
8%
|
15%
|
11%
|
20%
|
Neither support nor oppose
|
8%
|
10%
|
18%
|
17%
|
13%
|
Oppose
|
6%
|
17%
|
16%
|
18%
|
13%
|
Strongly oppose
|
11%
|
60%
|
38%
|
28%
|
29%
|
Unsure
|
4%
|
0%
|
4%
|
3%
|
4%
|
Grand Total
|
100%
|
100%
|
100%
|
100%
|
100%
|
Total support
|
70%
|
14%
|
24%
|
33%
|
41%
|
Total oppose
|
17%
|
77%
|
54%
|
46%
|
42%
|
Net support
|
53%
|
-63%
|
-31%
|
-13%
|
-1%
|
What is more, even many of those who support the policy don’t think it will work, while many of those who don’t, do. The table below shows the splits on whether respondents think it will work or not.
Will the measure work?
|
ALP
|
Grn
|
LP
|
Minor
|
Grand Total
|
Yes
|
63%
|
22%
|
6%
|
16%
|
30%
|
No
|
10%
|
51%
|
83%
|
59%
|
51%
|
Unsure
|
27%
|
26%
|
11%
|
24%
|
20%
|
Grand Total
|
100%
|
100%
|
100%
|
100%
|
100%
|
Net yes
|
53%
|
-29%
|
-77%
|
-43%
|
-21%
|
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That means that while 70% of Labor voters support it, only 63% think it will work. For Liberals those figures are 24% and 6% and for other minor parties 33% and 16%. For Greens it runs in the other direction. Only 14% of them support it, but 22% expect it to work.
Putting the Greens to one side the gap between support and effectiveness is what one might call the Rudd credibility gap. As the qualitative responses, which I’ll get to shortly, show, Rudd may be honoured by many voters for the conception of policies, but he is damned in the delivery of them by those same voters. This is an issue that goes to trust and to competence and reflects a belief that the policy is about winning an election, not about stemming the boats.
This shows itself in the fact that the policy is a net vote loser for Labor. Given that both the major parties are a long way short of 50% of the vote the next election is about preferences. So, while Liberal voters are more turned-off by the policy than Labor voters are turned-on, the real electoral pain comes from the fact that Greens voters are a net 50% less likely to vote Labor and the other minor parties net 26%.
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