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Rudd (not Labor) can win

By Graham Young - posted Friday, 28 June 2013


The latest poll from our What the People Want panel shows that Labor could now be in a winning position by changing to Kevin Rudd.

Our panel consists of people who are more interested in current affairs than the average voter. The results therefore tend to predict what less interested voters will decide to do when they absorb and analyse more of the facts.

Labor can win

The polling shows the Liberals dropping 6 percentage points, Labor up 3 percentage points and the Greens up 4. This puts the parties in a similar position to October 2010. If an election had been held then either side might have won, or it could have been a hung parliament.

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Analysis of a weighted sample shows some interesting results.

Kevin Rudd not the messiah

 While Rudd appears to be wildly popular in scenes from shopping malls and public places around the country, this is not reflected in his approval scores where a majority (52%) disapprove of him and only 34% approves.

Rudd_Approve ALP Grn LP Grand Total
Strongly approve 36% 7% 1% 16%
Approve 34% 20% 3% 18%
Neither approve nor disapprove 13% 29% 8% 12%
Disapprove 7% 26% 16% 13%
Strongly disapprove 8% 16% 72% 40%
Unsure 2% 3% 1% 1%
Grand Total 100% 100% 100% 100%
Total approve 71% 27% 4% 35%
Total disapprove 15% 42% 87% 52%
Net approve 55% -15% -83% -18%

This reflects a significant rump of unhappy Labor voters (15%), a plurality of Greens (42%) and the majority of Liberals (87%) who disapprove of him.[Note: in the original these figures were slightly wrong due to a transposition error, and have been corrected today (15/7/2013)].

Abbott’s approval relatively strong

Tony Abbott’s net approval rating is a little stronger. While his disapproval is similar to Rudd’s at 50% he has a higher approval rating of 43%.

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This reflects much stronger support from his own supporters (only 3% of Liberal voters disapprove), and the still very high first preference vote for the Liberal Party. ALP and Greens are almost unanimous in their disapproval – pointing to a divided nation.

Abbott_Approve

ALP

Grn

LP

Total

Strongly approve

1%

1%

45%

22%

Approve

1%

0%

43%

22%

Neither approve nor disapprove

3%

0%

8%

7%

Disapprove

12%

4%

2%

7%

Strongly disapprove

83%

95%

1%

43%

Unsure

0%

0%

1%

0%

Grand Total

100%

100%

100%

100%

Total approve

2%

1%

88%

43%

Total disapprove

95%

99%

3%

50%

Net approve

-94%

-98%

85%

-6%

Preferred Prime Minister a dead heat

This makes the question of who is the preferred prime minister a dead heat.

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About the Author

Graham Young is chief editor and the publisher of On Line Opinion. He is executive director of the Australian Institute for Progress, an Australian think tank based in Brisbane, and the publisher of On Line Opinion.

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