Reborn

With the High Court's sinking of Canberra's Malaysian asylum seeker solution the Gillard Government is now awash with speculation about a leadership change.

The rumours about a change at the top have been around for many months beginning not long after Gillard seized the Prime Minister's chair from Kevin Rudd. The collapse of her Malaysian solution has just given them more momentum.

And the focus has swung back on to Rudd who, if the opinion polls are right, could be the last Labor man standing in Queensland in a forecast Government wipeout at the next election.

Ironically despite the media fascination with Rudd, which began from the moment he was knocked off his prime ministerial perch last year, he is still widely loathed within the Labor Party.

So why would Labor want to put him back in the driver's seat? One obvious reason is that it is hard to see why any of the more likely contenders for leadership such as the ambitious Bill Shorten would want to take the party to an inevitable, humiliating, defeat at the next election.

One theory is that Rudd could be encouraged to accept the baton, take Labor to the election, and then stand aside to allow someone like Shorten, or Simon Crean, to begin the rebuilding process. Of course this would require a degree of humility which we haven't seen so far in Rudd's character. It would, in fact, be portrayed as an act of grace in the long term interest of the Labor Party.

But it would also allow Rudd to achieve what Gillard and her supporters denied him - the opportunity to go to an election as Prime Minister regardless of the fact that this would end up in certain defeat.

In the last days of his Prime Ministership Rudd was urged by a close associate to come clean with the electorate about the policy mistakes he had made and to accept the fact that things had to change. It was advice he ignored.

When Gillard took the reins she lost no time in claiming that the Government ( under Rudd's command) had lost its way and things would now be different.

But the policy blundering has,in fact, continued seemingly at a greater pace if that is possible. What has changed since last year's election is the country now has a minority government and as a result Gillard has been forced to cut a deal with the Greens and the independents to stay in power.

She may choose to argue that changing leaders would put this deal at risk. But if you are staring defeat in the face so what?

It is clear that Gillard flip flopped on her election promise that no government she led would put a tax on carbon to accommodate the pressures involved in sustaining power in a minority government.

It is also clear that she believes the over compensation she has promised key sections of the community such as the aged and lower income groups to offset rises in the cost of living particularly relating to power will be a valuable election weapon to be used against the Coalition once the carbon tax becomes law.

But the opinion polls which put Labor's primary vote well below 30 per cent suggest that the electorate is not going to buy this. In other words Gillard is not the only problem she is indicative, in the eyes of the electorate, of a bad government.

So, if there is to be a change of leadership when will this occur? One view by ALP power brokers is that it should happen after the Budget which is due in May. This would give the Government the opportunity to get some sort of economic strategy in place before the election-albeit one which may have to be massaged to lessen the pain on polling day. It would also come at a time when the Government has more flexibility in determining when to call the election.

May also coincides with the deadline which Tasmanian Independent Andrew Wilkie has set for Government legislative action on his campaign for a crackdown on poker machine gambling- a highly divisive issue in itself.

Whatever the case it seems inevitable that any change which involved Rudd would have to see Treasurer, Wayne Swan, depart with Gillard. Apart from anything else there is no love lost now between these two Queenslanders.

Some reports suggest that Defence Minister, Stephen Smith, could replace Swan and Smith would be regarded as a safe pair of hands. But Smith and Rudd fell out ages ago when Smith was Foreign Affairs Minister a portfolio claimed by the former Prime Minister after he was turfed out of the Lodge.

The counter argument to all of this is the destabilising effect of another leadership switch backed by the fact that changes at the top in NSW did not save Labor from an electoral thrashing.

The dilemma for Labor is that the Government is steaming Titanic- like towards an iceberg. Can changing the captain avoid disaster?

ENDS