Copenhagen: a warning from the history of Earth

Figure 4. Atmospheric CO2 and ocean bottom temperatures for the period 25 - 10 million years ago (Oligocene-Miocene). Paleo-temperatures are based on 18O and Ca/Mg ratios; Paleo CO2 levels are based on Stomata (fossil leaves pores), carbon isotopes and boron isotopes. Royer, 2008. PNAS, 105, 407-408, January 15, 2008.

Trends in atmospheric CO2, temperatures, ice age phases and greenhouse phases in Earth history demonstrate close relations between atmospheric CO2 levels of below 500ppm and glaciations (Figs 2-4).

There is no known precedence in the recent history of Earth for a rise in CO2 as fast as the current rate of 2ppm/year. With an upper stability limit of the Antarctic ice sheet at about 500ppm (Royer D. 2008. Linkages between CO2, climate, and evolution in deep time. PNAS), the onset of ice melt at the margins of East Antarctica raises the possibility Earth may be tracking toward ice-free conditions analogous to those of the late Eocene (>500ppm CO2; +5 degrees C; +70 metres sea level).

There is no knowing the time table towards an ice-free Earth, the current “experiment” by Homo sapiens being unique in the history of the planet.

The history of the Pleistocene (1.8-0.01 million years-ago) glacial-interglacial era is dominated by abrupt shifts in the state of the climate (Alley R. B. 2000. Ice-core evidence of abrupt climate changes. Proceedings of the Natural Academy of Science). During this time gradual climate changes were repeatedly interrupted by abrupt tipping points, involving temperature shifts of several degrees over a few centuries, a few decades and even a few years (Steffensen et al., 2008. High-resolution Greenland ice core data show abrupt climate change happens in few years. Science Express). The implications for an unstable, highly reactive, nature of the atmosphere are clear.

Having placed a man on the moon, split the atom, coded the DNA and created a World Wide Web, science and technology possess the ingenuity required for 11th hour attempts at climate change mitigation and adaptation, including bio-sequestration and CO2 down-draw techniques. However, the $-trillion-scale funding needed to implement these methods continues to be poured into the military, casinos and games.

A medieval state of mind appears to be manifest through a resistance to enlightenment and to science. Much like the grieving cycle of Helen Kubler-Ross, denial, resistance, anger and finally resignation alternate. Vested interests embark on massive well financed disinformation campaigns, using mouthpieces who defy the basic laws of physics and often fabricate climate data.

Governments undertake merely symbolic actions out of step with scientific projections of looming climate tipping points. None of the targets discussed in Copenhagen get near the minimum effort required to reduce the increasing carbon emissions and deforestation.

What is referred to as climate change represents, in terms of Earth’s history, a Great Oxidation Event perpetrated by a Prometheans who assumed the mastery of fire. We may never understand the natural rationale for a species to cut and burn the forests from which it descended, proceed to dig and burn the fossil remnants of past biospheres and unconsciously render the atmosphere, the lungs of the Earth, unsuitable for its own future.

The atmosphere is not waiting for a human decision.