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Ahmadinejad and the shifting political environment in Iran

By Benedetta Berti - posted Thursday, 13 November 2008


In the lead-up to Iran's March-April 2008 parliamentary elections, Ahmadinejad's United Front of Principlists was opposed by the Broad Principlists Coalition, an ad hoc alliance of his conservative opponents, including popular mayor of Tehran Mohammad Baqer Qaliba, former head of the Revolutionary Guards Mohsen Rezaie, and Larijani. Ahmadinejad wisely decided at the last minute to participate in a broad alliance with his conservative opponents, which netted his coalition 117 of 290 seats, while giving his conservative rivals 53. The reformist bloc obtained 46 seats.

After the new parliament convened in May, the pragmatists obtained an important victory with the election of Larijani as parliament speaker, replacing Qolamali Haddad Adel.

Larijani, a very close political ally of Ayatollah Khamenei and a former member of the Iranian Revolutionary Guards Corps, has used his position to create strategic alliances with the different legislative blocs, with the ultimate objective of boosting the parliament's efficiency and independence from the executive.

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While strengthening their role within the Majlis, Ahmadinejad's conservative rivals also appear to have their eyes on winning the 2009 presidential election. The Broad Principlists Coalition's potential candidates include Larijani, whose conservative ideology and background have ensured him the trust of a large part of the conservative bloc. Another potential presidential challenger is Qaliba, who beat the electoral machine of Ahmadinejad (his predecessor as mayor of Tehran) in the capital's municipal elections.

The political strength of this rival conservative bloc may not be sufficient at present to defeat Ahmadinejad, who still commands significant support from the rural poor. However, their influence could grow exponentially if they ally with other anti-Ahmadinejad forces within the Parliament, such as the reformist bloc. Larijani's commitment to the independence of the Majlis could provide a bridge for them to reach out to the reformists, although it is at this point still unclear whether this ad hoc co-operation within the Majlis could ever translate into a broader electoral agreement or into the joint support of a presidential candidate.

In sum, growing popular disaffection toward the president and shifting political alignments indicate that the re-election of Ahmadinejad is not to be taken for granted and that an important part of next electoral race will be disputed internally within the conservative forces.

A significant wild card in determining whether Iran's "man of the people" becomes its first one-term president in over a quarter century is Supreme Leader Khamenei. Ahmadinejad's support from the Iranian clergy is waning, and Khamenei may shift his support to a rival candidate if public disaffection with the president continues to grow.

A second factor that will impact the 2009 election is the evolution of international dynamics and the unfolding of the nuclear crisis. Any significant progress in the those realms will likely strengthen the president's political credibility, while a diplomatic setback could play into the hands of those who have argued that he has mishandled both the nuclear negotiations and relations with the West. On the other hand, a military action against Iran before the next elections could strengthen Ahmadinejad by triggering a rise in anti-Western and nationalistic feelings.

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First published in Mideast Monitor, Volume 3 No 2, in August, 2008



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About the Author

Benedetta Berti is the Bradley Foundation Doctoral fellow at the Fletcher School (Tufts University), and a Neubauer Associate Research Fellow at the Institute for National Security Studies (Tel Aviv University). Ms. Berti specializes in international security studies and Middle Eastern politics.

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