Like what you've read?

On Line Opinion is the only Australian site where you get all sides of the story. We don't
charge, but we need your support. Here�s how you can help.

  • Advertise

    We have a monthly audience of 70,000 and advertising packages from $200 a month.

  • Volunteer

    We always need commissioning editors and sub-editors.

  • Contribute

    Got something to say? Submit an essay.


 The National Forum   Donate   Your Account   On Line Opinion   Forum   Blogs   Polling   About   
On Line Opinion logo ON LINE OPINION - Australia's e-journal of social and political debate

Subscribe!
Subscribe





On Line Opinion is a not-for-profit publication and relies on the generosity of its sponsors, editors and contributors. If you would like to help, contact us.
___________

Syndicate
RSS/XML


RSS 2.0

Mal has jumped the gun

By Peter Brent - posted Thursday, 18 September 2008


If winning elections was all about ability, energy and determination, the Coalition would be the strong favourite to take government in 2010. If the just-minted Malcolm Turnbull isn't the most centred, talented individual ever to occupy the position of federal Opposition leader, he must come close.

But winning elections is not mainly about those things. Timing is more important. If a government is ready to lose, a competent Opposition will beat it. Otherwise, forget about it. And while the continuing bad news from Wall Street makes it just possible this will happen in 2010, Turnbull is unlikely to still be Liberal leader.

Assuming a three-year term, the next election is 26 months away. No federal Opposition leader has lasted that long since Kim Beazley stood down in 2001.

Advertisement

And Gough Whitlam aside, all successful federal Opposition leaders in living memory were installed only months out from their winning election. (John Howard's 1995-6 tenure, at 14 months, was the longest.) This is partly because an election on the horizon keeps the troops focused and the job secure. It's also because electors get quickly tired of whinging Opposition leaders (and there is no other kind).

This is why Tuesday's Liberal party room vote has very likely dealt a mortal blow to Turnbull's prime ministerial ambitions. The most likely course of events sees him being toppled some time in the next two years, his political brand trashed.

Just imagine the tight leadership vote last December had gone the other way. Today it would be Turnbull who had just been chewed up and spat out by the worst job in politics. And Brendan Nelson, rather than having to recover from 10 months of horror, would instead be the heir apparent. Journalists would hang off his every word.

It's in the timing.

Nelson wasn't a bad Opposition leader. His schmaltzy brave heart earnestness and populist instincts could have worked well against an old and vulnerable government, particularly one led by a clinical control freak. He was just in the wrong place at the wrong time. Now Turnbull is there.

The Liberal Party hopes the tumultuous days are now over, but the term poisoned chalice wasn't coined for nothing. The position determines the person more than vice versa. Perhaps after a decent honeymoon, opinion polls are likely to fall back into line, once again regularly showing the Opposition lagging behind the Government. If not at first, then eventually.

Advertisement

Several dozen Newpolls doing their fortnightly work, chip-chipping at his leadership. Two years is too long.

It is a mundane fact that new governments can usually expect at least two terms, which means that the first Opposition leader rarely wins. It's not lack of talent; on the contrary, they are often the best and brightest. But no first-off Opposition leader has become prime minister since 1914. Instead, they have capped off an otherwise much-admired public life with disappointment and, indeed, personal sadness.

Clever Peter Costello for avoiding that fate. The former treasurer's decision not to run last December shows he understands the cyclical dynamics. He could still take the leadership any time, but continues to reject it, while not quite ruling it out for the future. Vanity - the need for attention - probably plays a part, as do those publishing requirements. But it surely also indicates he doesn't think the time is yet right. If he took the job now, he would be unlikely to last until the election. Even if he did last, he probably wouldn't win. Instead, the position would ruin him.

  1. Pages:
  2. Page 1
  3. 2
  4. All

First published in The Australian on September 17, 2008.



Discuss in our Forums

See what other readers are saying about this article!

Click here to read & post comments.

11 posts so far.

Share this:
reddit this reddit thisbookmark with del.icio.us Del.icio.usdigg thisseed newsvineSeed NewsvineStumbleUpon StumbleUponsubmit to propellerkwoff it

About the Author

Peter Brent is publisher of www.mumble.com.au, a website devoted to Australian politics. He is also a PhD student at the Research School of Social Sciences, ANU. He is a member of the Australian National University's Democratic Audit of Australia.

Other articles by this Author

All articles by Peter Brent

Creative Commons LicenseThis work is licensed under a Creative Commons License.

Article Tools
Comment 11 comments
Print Printable version
Subscribe Subscribe
Email Email a friend
Advertisement

About Us Search Discuss Feedback Legals Privacy