Like what you've read?

On Line Opinion is the only Australian site where you get all sides of the story. We don't
charge, but we need your support. Here�s how you can help.

  • Advertise

    We have a monthly audience of 70,000 and advertising packages from $200 a month.

  • Volunteer

    We always need commissioning editors and sub-editors.

  • Contribute

    Got something to say? Submit an essay.


 The National Forum   Donate   Your Account   On Line Opinion   Forum   Blogs   Polling   About   
On Line Opinion logo ON LINE OPINION - Australia's e-journal of social and political debate

Subscribe!
Subscribe





On Line Opinion is a not-for-profit publication and relies on the generosity of its sponsors, editors and contributors. If you would like to help, contact us.
___________

Syndicate
RSS/XML


RSS 2.0

The defining issue for transport planning is peak oil, not traffic congestion

By Stuart McCarthy - posted Friday, 19 October 2007


Griffith University’s recent “Our Future, Your Say” forum on the future of the car was an important contribution to the ongoing debate about transport infrastructure in South East Queensland. Unfortunately, three of the four panelists, namely Deputy Premier Paul Lucas, Brisbane Lord Mayor Campbell Newman and RACQ CEO Ian Gillespie, demonstrated a limited understanding of world events that are creating a paradigm shift in the field of transport planning.

While the current debate revolves around efforts to address traffic congestion, the underlying assumption here is that car travel will continue to be inexpensive. The peak and subsequent decline in world oil production, or “peak oil”, is invalidating this assumption, hence affordability, not traffic congestion, will soon become the defining issue for transport planning in South East Queensland. The only question is whether or not our policy makers recognise this reality before it’s too late to avoid a public infrastructure crisis that will make the water grid look like child’s play.

Evidence that the rate of world oil production is at or near its peak is compelling. The rate of oil discovery peaked in the mid-1960s. The rate of consumption surpassed the discovery rate in the mid-1980s. Today, the world consumes oil at five times the rate at which new discoveries are being made. World production of conventional crude oil has been flat for the last two years and may have already peaked. Additions to world oil reserves from new discoveries, enhanced oil recovery and non-conventional oil aren’t keeping up with the consumption rate.

Advertisement

Last month’s Association for the Study of Peak Oil annual conference in Ireland reached a broad consensus that peak production will likely occur by 2012, while the International Energy Agency’s most recent medium term forecast warns of an oil supply “crunch” by the same year. This reality is reflected in the tripling of crude oil prices over the last five years, but even US$80 per barrel will soon be considered cheap.

Australia is on a long list of oil producing countries that have already passed peak oil production. In our case, production peaked in the year 2000. While several new oil projects on the North West Shelf will see modest increases in domestic production for the next few years, by 2015 Australia will likely be importing 80 per cent of its oil. The annual petroleum trade deficit already exceeds $8 billion, two thirds of the entire trade deficit.

Belinda Robinson, Chief Executive of the Australian Petroleum Production and Exploration Association, recently estimated that this annual petroleum trade deficit would increase to $27 billion by 2015 (PDF 830KB), assuming that prices would remain at US$50 a barrel. Given that oil prices are already hovering around US$80 a barrel before world production has begun to decline in earnest, a much more realistic figure lies somewhere in the range of $40-80 billion, equivalent to 5-10 per cent of current GDP, or double to quadruple the current value of our coal exports.

The major implication of peak oil for the average Queensland consumer is that fuel prices, and food prices, could realistically double or triple within the next several years. A petrol subsidy of eight cents a litre will make no difference to somebody who can’t afford to pay $3 a litre, or $180 to fill up the family car. Families in the mortgage belt of the outer suburbs, with little access to adequate public transport, will be particularly vulnerable (PDF 921KB).

While the electorate might today be clamouring for governments to build more tunnels and motorways to address the immediate problem of worsening traffic congestion, in the next few years when faced with the choice between filling up the car or putting food on the table they will begin asking politicians why there are insufficient buses and trains for them to get to work. The correlation between increasing oil prices and patronage on Brisbane’s already inadequate public transport for the last five years (see graph) is a very clear "market signal" if ever there was one.

Brisbane bus train patronage with rising oil prices

Advertisement

Despite growing awareness of the peak oil phenomenon in recent years, feasibility studies for new roads in South East Queensland, including the $3 billion North-South Bypass Tunnel (NSBT), have simply projected historical traffic growth figures into the future (PDF 4.31MB) while completely omitting the impact of rising fuel prices.

Since championing the NSBT’s construction, committing Brisbane ratepayers to $730 million in costs before the project is even completed and encouraging “mum and dad investors” (PDF 53KB) to risk their hard-earned savings on this high-risk venture, Newman is now attempting to shift responsibility for the Queensland equivalent of Sydney’s Cross-City Tunnel fiasco exclusively to the private sector. This is an absurd situation given that authoritative forecasts placing the world oil production peak in the 2010-2015 timeframe, well within the 2030 timeframe used by transport and urban planners, have for years been well known not only to the consultants undertaking these feasibility studies but also to public officials in Brisbane City Council and the Queensland Government.

Debates about transport in Queensland are hampered by two further myths surrounding cost comparisons between public transport and roads.

The first is that public transport is subsidised while road costs are covered by taxes and other revenues from motorists. Construction and operating costs for public transport certainly are subsidised by the taxpayer, however the fact is that car use is subsidised much more heavily. Including revenues from licensing, registration, fuel excise and other taxes, but excluding any of the considerable environmental, health or road accident costs, public roads operate at a net cost to the Australian taxpayer of at least $4.7 billion per annum (PDF 2.87MB). Queenslanders pay a disproportionately higher bill per capita given that our state government’s $540 million per annum fuel subsidy is unique in the country.

Yet fuel and other road user subsidies pale into insignificance in relation to the private costs of car dependence to the South East Queensland economy. Given that no cars are manufactured locally and we produce only negligible quantities of oil, at least $10 billion leaves the state each year, even at today’s petrol prices, to pay for our reliance on cars. The typical household currently owns and operates two cars. Reducing this dependence by half, to one car per household, could inject at least $5 billion into local businesses, jobs and investments.

The second myth is that the population density of South East Queensland is inadequate to support a cost-effective, world-class public transport system. Throughout Europe, regular heavy rail and bus services extend well out into the rural areas surrounding major cities, while extensive light rail and bus networks connect the suburbs and city centres. Here in Brisbane meanwhile, the Lord Mayor trumpets his commitment to public transport on the one hand while closing bus lanes and turning commuters away from over-crowded buses on the other.

For its part, the state government has committed two thirds of the transport infrastructure funding in the South East Queensland Regional Plan to road projects that may become redundant even before they are completed, while ignoring public transport black holes such as the much vaunted Western Corridor. Clearly the only barrier to a world-class public transport system in South East Queensland is the lack of political will.

In order to address the challenges arising from peak oil, what the South East Queensland public urgently needs from its political and business leaders is visionary thinking about the transport needs of the future, not more populism, pork-barreling or protection of vested interests. The keys to this will be to recognise the harsh reality that there is no quick techno-fix that will preserve the motor car as the cheap, principal transport solution that it is today, to communicate this reality to the public, and to set about developing a public transport system that can get the majority of commuters to and from work each day. Above all, what will be required is honesty. The future of the South East Queensland economy depends on it.

  1. Pages:
  2. 1
  3. 2
  4. All


Discuss in our Forums

See what other readers are saying about this article!

Click here to read & post comments.

35 posts so far.

Share this:
reddit this reddit thisbookmark with del.icio.us Del.icio.usdigg thisseed newsvineSeed NewsvineStumbleUpon StumbleUponsubmit to propellerkwoff it

About the Author

Stuart McCarthy is the Brisbane Coordinator for the Australian Association for the Study of Peak Oil. He has 20 years of experience in engineering, logistics, disaster relief, security, risk analysis and planning in Australia, Africa, the Middle East, Southeast Asia and the Pacific Islands.

Other articles by this Author

All articles by Stuart McCarthy

Creative Commons LicenseThis work is licensed under a Creative Commons License.

Article Tools
Comment 35 comments
Print Printable version
Subscribe Subscribe
Email Email a friend
Advertisement

About Us Search Discuss Feedback Legals Privacy