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Our finite planet: planning for a decline in our oil bounty

By Michael Lardelli - posted Monday, 20 August 2007


Recently, the International Energy Agency abandoned its no-problem mantra on oil supplies. In an astonishing about-face, it is now warning of insufficient oil production within five years due to rapidly increasing demand in China and India and the declining spare production capacity from OPEC. (See my article in On Line Opinion.)

The report does not declare us to be at the peak of oil production but speaks strongly about peak oil issues such as dwindling oil output from old fields, an insufficient supply of new oil production projects, the escalating costs of oilfield and refinery development, “slippage” (delays) in such projects, the failure of biofuels to make a big dent in mitigating oil depletion and the conflict of biofuels with food supply, (demonstrations in Mexico over high corn prices as corn is diverted to ethanol production) and so on.

The role of the IEA is to inform OECD governments about energy. Did Rann hear its message? Does he understand what will happen to Adelaide, especially outer Adelaide, if the price of petrol doubles or more?

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A person with scientific training like Minister Jane Lomax-Smith will tell you that “energy” means “the capacity to do work”. Oil is our most important source of energy and if we wait until the price of oil doubles before we do anything then, whatever the work required to cope, we will be able to afford less of it.

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First published in the Adelaide Review on August 17, 2007.



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About the Author

Michael Lardelli is Senior Lecturer in Genetics at The University of Adelaide. Since 2004 he has been an activist for spreading awareness on the impact of energy decline resulting from oil depletion. He has written numerous articles on the topic published in The Adelaide Review and elsewhere, has delivered ABC Radio National Perspectives, spoken at events organised by the South Australian Department of Trade and Economic Development and edits the (subscription only) Beyond Oil SA email newsletter. He has lectured on "peak oil" to students in the Australian School of Petroleum.

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