Oh, the Cold War how I miss it so: Russia and America's missile wars

A debutant nuclear weapon state would find it extremely difficult to design a nuclear weapon of the required weight for an ICBM.

When faced with such facts Washington tries to shift the goal posts and claims that BMD in Eastern Europe is meant to protect Europe from Iran but America's NATO allies were hardly consulted on the matter and have expressed grave reservations about the whole idea. Indeed, it is acknowledged that the NATO states closest to the putative threat would not be covered by interceptors based in Poland.

Moreover, even if Iran had nuclear weapons and even if Iran had an ICBM capability there is no reason to suppose that Iran would not be deterred from using them given the overwhelming nuclear capability of the United States.

Such facts raise eyebrows in Moscow, much as BMD in Asia raises eyebrows in Beijing. But why should planners in Moscow be so concerned with BMD?

There are two main factors. First, missile defence would give the US greater "freedom of action" to employ conventional military firepower. This is an important consideration because since the end of the cold war NATO has been expanding, contrary to an agreement reached with Gorbachev, toward Russia's borders. More importantly, NATO has been expanding its mission, both in terms of shifting the focus from defence to offence, and by a willingness to engage in military operations outside of Europe.

Second, in the calculus of rational strategic planners the main function of potential adversary missile defence is to augment the offensive power of nuclear strikes. If the US were to conduct a first strike against Russia then at some point diminishing returns would set in and Russia would still be left with nuclear weapons able to strike the United States in retaliation. If Ballistic Missile Defence could be made to work then this second strike capability, rather than being dealt with in a first strike given diminishing returns, would be defeated by missile interceptors.

In this way the US could possibly attain a theoretical first strike capability. What matters here is not the number of interceptors initially deployed but the fact that limited deployments act as a Trojan Horse for further future deployments.

When Condoleezza Rice states that it is ludicrous to believe that BMD could blunt Russia's deterrent based on thousands of warheads she ignores this calculus based on a second strike.

The two factors mentioned above are linked. Russia does not fear, and has no grounds to fear, that the US would actually launch a first strike even if Washington had the means to do so, although we are talking Team Bush here. The fear is that a theoretical first strike capability would give Washington the confidence to further expand its military potential towards Russia and throw its weight around in the former Soviet Union in ways favourable to US corporations and disfavourable to Russian corporations.

The global economic system has rightfully been described as a system of state-corporate mercantilism and this system is intimately linked with military power, even nuclear power.

At the recent G8 summit Putin put Bush on the back foot by proposing that the US radar slated for Europe could go to an existing Russian radar site in Azerbaijan. This proposal has been dismissed because it is “too close” to Iran - the putative threat. Both Putin and Bush are attempting to demonstrate to the Europeans that the other party is intransigent. Both sides are not offering proposals for joint co-operation that are meant to be taken seriously. For Putin the goal is to drive a wedge between Europe and the US. For Bush it is to sooth deep anger and anxiety in Europe.

In fact, it is interesting to reflect on what the US is doing with its long range missiles. The US is engaging in the "modernisation" of its fleet of Minuteman III missiles that began during the Clinton administration. The US is fitting the Minuteman III with the W87 warhead that previously armed the MX, a hard target killer that was designed for a first strike.