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Still struggling for independence: elections in Timor Leste

By Tim Anderson - posted Friday, 27 April 2007


Ramos Horta may still win the Presidency from Lu Olo in the second round. However this depends more on voter perceptions than on the small opposition parties’ ability to deliver “blocs” of votes, as in a more class-based party system. Ramos Horta has international recognition but Lu Olo is the “grassroots” candidate.

Many of the epithets thrown at Mari Alkatiri - that he was arrogant and an exile during the struggle - now apply to Ramos Horta, not Lu Olo. In any case, a Ramos Horta presidency would not be a major barrier to a Fretilin-led government. East Timorese are used to having a figurehead, non-Fretilin president, and a Fretilin government.

Xanana Gusmao’s descent from the presidency to party politics is a far more uncertain path. His role in the crisis and his open anti-Fretilin hostility has damaged his own standing, as well as that of Fretilin. After his passive support for the coup, much of the army leadership will not trust him. His attempt to recreate a “CNRT” coalition, using the initials of the earlier coalition which included Fretilin, is a gamble which depends upon cobbling together a number of small parties whose only common theme is opposition to Fretilin.

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On the other side, Fretilin will have suffered from their apparent inability to guarantee stability and the persistent attempts to blame the government for the coup. Fretilin may not be able to regain the outright parliamentary majority it has held since 2001. On the other hand, the Presidential first round tells us Fretilin is still the major political force in the country. Its vote could still exceed 40 per cent in the parliamentary elections. The competition would then be between a Fretilin-led coalition and a less coherent Xanana-led coalition.

Personalities apart, neither Xanana nor Ramos Horta offer much of a strategic alternative to Fretilin. Of course, both participated in many of the Fretilin-led government’s campaigns, including those which sought to bring in new development partners (for example, China for oil and gas and Cuba for health).

Some differences have emerged. Ramos Horta has said he favours “greater privileges” for foreign investors, and recently proposed a radical reduction in business taxes and tariffs. This would, however, increase government reliance on oil and gas revenues. Xanana’s one recent suggestion has been to break the controlled release of revenue from the Petroleum Fund. So the main policy departure of a Ramos Horta-Xanana-led coalition would seem to be spending up the oil wealth faster.

Fretilin, for its part, has an experienced group of ministers, including Deputy Prime Minister Estanislau da Silva, several senior women ministers including Maria Boavida and Ana Pessoa, a strong party machine, widespead membership and has shown its skills in coalition building. Even with an absolute parliamentary majority, Fretilin recruited independent MPs, such as Health Minister (now Deputy PM) Rui Araujo, Finance Minister Fernanda Borges, Education Minister Armindo Maia, Labor Minister Arsénio Bano and Foreign Minister Jose Ramos Horta into the government.

A Fretilin-led coalition government thus seems a more likely outcome of the coming parliamentary elections than a Xanana-led coalition. The return of Mari Alkatiri as prime minister is also possible. Just how the constellation of forces that deposed Alkatiri would react to this is not clear. Expectations have been raised by the intervention and anti-Fretilin push. In particular, it seems unlikely that Xanana imagines he is trading in his presidency to become opposition leader.

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About the Author

Tim Anderson is a Senior Lecturer in Political Economy at the University of Sydney.

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