East Timor - the perils of instant reportage

Importantly, neither the international monitors, nor the CNE itself consider there are any grounds to invalidate the election result.

While the CNE is still learning how to conduct an election and should not be too harshly criticised, it is fair to say that commentators seeking explanation for major irregularities should probably look to the processes of the Commission and its technical secretariat, the STAE, rather than the actions of political parties themselves.

Much of this confusing reportage has occluded the real story - the significant fall in support for Fretilin. Barring a very low voter turnout, Jose Ramos-Horta will almost certainly win the second round, as other opposition candidates swing their vote behind him.

This vote is a promising development, and one which clearly signals the likely emergence of a genuine multi-party democracy in East Timor in the coming parliamentary elections on June 30.

The collapse in Fretilin's vote since receiving 57 per cent in 2001, and dominating the 2005 district elections, suggests the 2006 crisis was a major factor in desire for change. The vote is easily poor enough to give succour to those within Fretilin who seek a change of leadership.

However, the demise of Alkatiri's confident assertion of an easy victory for Lu Olo is to some degree matched by the thwarting of opposition hopes that the 2006 crisis would herald a wholesale voter demolition of Fretilin. Neither has come to pass. Fretilin has retained a core vote which will probably see it remain the largest single party in the new parliament - though now in opposition against a coalition of anti-Fretilin parties.

The Fretlin vote may actually increase slightly in parliamentary elections - as Jose Ramos-Horta is probably more capable of swinging Fretilin supporters than Xanana Gusmao now is; having maintained better relations with the governing party, and kept himself more successfully "above the fray" in the 2006 East-West crisis. By the same token, however, Xanana Gusmao will more effectively mobilise the anti-Fretilin vote, and he will poll more strongly than Ramos-Horta has in the first presidential round.

The likelihood is therefore that Xanana Gusmao's new party, the CNRT, will form a loose coalition with PD and other opposition parties to form a government after June 30. Who becomes prime minister will depend on which party gets the largest number of seats. Gusmao has the higher profile with a broader support base and is therefore favourite, but PD has the more organised party structure. The "last-minute" nature of CNRT may tell against them.

Moreover, PD has an established alliance with two other smaller opposition parties which may favour the younger contender Fernando “Lasama” de Araujo. Gusmao has ruled out joining forces formally, and will therefore have to poll well to guarantee the PM role.

In the long term, however, this informal coalition may prove fragile and unstable. The parties have anti-Fretilin sentiment in common, and also Catholic Church endorsement, and broadly concur on a less critical approach to the very few neoliberal development prescriptions that Fretilin rejected.

But populist opposition calls to spend East Timor's now substantial oil funds still lack adequate detail on the type of sustainable development initiatives proposed to address entrenched poverty, and on controversial intergenerational issues (such as the choice of official languages) the anti-Fretilin parties, broadly representing different generations, may yet find little ground in common.

Inevitably, part of a wider problem with political accountability in a country without mature democratic institutions has been a weak, marginalised opposition in the wake of Fretilin’s dominant showing at the 2001 elections. Clearly, this will no longer be the case after June 30.

While this election represents an important milestone in East Timor's political development, the emergence of a genuine democratic political culture will require all parties to accept the election results - not just Fretilin.