While President Arroyo and Philippines legislators fiddle, the economy is burning. The Joint Foreign Chambers of Commerce in the Philippines, comprising business groups from Australia, New Zealand, North America, Europe, Japan and South Korea, estimates that some $8.5 billion in direct foreign investment over the next four years is currently on hold because of political uncertainty and the country’s poor human rights record. If it were released it could generate jobs for 2.9 million Filipinos.
However, there is one possible player in this diplomatic game that would have no qualms over human rights. China, which would dearly like to see American influence reduced in South-East Asia, is clearly interested in undermining the US-Philippines special relationship which has existed since the end of the Spanish-American war of 1898. Although US bases where phased out in the early 1990s, there remains a substantial American presence with military advisers and resources employed in the fight against Muslim and communist rebels.
The current Chinese push comes from tourism. The Singapore Institute of International Affairs estimates Chinese visitors increased by 34 per cent between January and September this year compared to the same period in 2005. Exhibitions, conventions and political exchanges are being planned over the next few years.
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For Australia, which recently agreed to strengthen its security links with the Philippines, the stakes are not inconsiderable. With political and military instability in the South Pacific, the gradual Chinese expansion towards our traditional sphere of influence will be watched with concern from Canberra.
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About the Author
Graham Cooke has been a journalist for more than four decades, having lived in England, Northern Ireland, New Zealand and Australia, for a lengthy period covering the diplomatic round for The Canberra Times.
He has travelled to and reported on events in more than 20 countries, including an extended stay in the Middle East. Based in Canberra, where he obtains casual employment as a speech writer in the Australian Public Service, he continues to find occasional assignments overseas, supporting the coverage of international news organisations.