Not a bad year after all for Cambodia

A couple of months ago, there was a similar flood of appeals by almost the same groups for the king not to sign a supplementary border treaty between Cambodia and Vietnam. The young king was under tremendous pressure for weeks, even when it was clear to many that his hands were tied as a constitutional monarch. Sihamoni could have, as some suggested, chosen the easy way out and gone on holiday, leaving it to the acting head of state to sign the Bill into law. In the event, Sihamoni boldly chose to stay and signed the Bill knowing that it would upset some people.

Once again, the pressure is building up - this time for Sihamoni to pardon Rainsy and others and, once again, observers believe that Sihamoni will do the right thing.

The pressure is much less these days on Hun Sen. At the recent annual CPP congress, he was named the undisputed prime ministerial candidate in the 2008 elections, a far cry from the situation before the last elections when the confirmation was not so readily forthcoming till much nearer the polls. In addition, many observers are convinced that the enlarged CPP central committee, from 153 to 268 members, has many of Hun Sen's men. Hun Sen is clearly in charge and this is not at all surprising since he has done well as a clear-minded and resolute prime minister and  party strategist.

Ranariddh is the luckiest. In the last decade his party's fortunes have gone from bad to worse and many had written it off after the last elections. Joining the government has given him a lifeline and he knows it. The subsequent warming up of personal relations between him and Hun Sen, though it has not percolated all the way down to the provincial structures, has been a great boost for Funcinpec and generally good for the country.

What started off as an uncertain year for Cambodia is ending better than expected. The IMF has just announced that it will provide 100 per cent of debt relief, amounting to approximately US$82 million, incurred by Cambodia to the IMF before January 1, 2005. The IMF noted that Cambodia had qualified for the debt relief because "of its overall satisfactory recent macro-economic performance, progress in poverty-reduction, and improvements in public expenditure management.

The IMF further noted that since 1999, Cambodia had enjoyed robust economic expansion, with annual growth rates averaging over 7 per cent with inflation under control and with improving public administration, in particular public expenditure management.

While that is a good way to end the year, the New Year will bring varied and complex challenges, the major ones being the need to further strengthen its institutions and to ensure that good governance is firmly rooted in the country. This call is especially for a determined and comprehensive attempt at curbing corruption and dismantling the equally deeply entrenched patronage system.

It is now for Hun Sen to focus on and to promote the younger generation of technocrats and politicians to address these challenges. This will take some time but what is at stake is not just Hun Sen's credibility and his place in history. Cambodia's viability is also at stake. No one wants it to be a failed state.