In Cambodia, it's the art of the possible

Detractors and the international media explain the recent uncharacteristic developments as resulting from international pressure in the lead-up to the important meeting of the donor countries in March.

There can be no doubt the donor meeting and annual aid of about $US600 million are extremely important for post-conflict Cambodia - one of the world's poorest countries, with an annual per capita income of only $ US320.

While donor unhappiness is of concern to the Government, it is difficult to believe it was the major motivating factor for the recent detente. Hun Sen is not that easily cowed. The catalyst was nearer home - the three parties saw a convergence of interests to end the protracted impasse.

Rainsy, who did well in the last elections, was, however, not as nimble in the horse-trading that followed, and was soon sidelined by the other two more experienced players. His subsequent year in self-imposed exile whittled away his support at home and wearied some of his international friends.

Moreover, new aspirants appeared in the SRP - among them human rights activist Kem Sokha, who was seen as more predictable than Rainsy and given less to rhetoric.

Importantly, Kem Sokha had the support of the powerful and generous US-based International Republican Institute and its unique style of promoting democracy in Cambodia.

The defining moment for Rainsy came when Kem Sokha boldly went to prison for his beliefs, while Rainsy was safe in France.

It was clear to Rainsy that if he did not return quickly to take control of his party, he might as well stay in Paris. A more charitable explanation is that Rainsy has a vision for Cambodia, the fulfilment of which requires his presence in the country to prepare his party for 2008.

Hun Sen is comfortable and in charge. He can afford to be magnanimous. Neither Rainsy nor Ranariddh is a threat. Nonetheless, he is a realist, and recognises that Rainsy in the self-chosen wilderness is a constant irritant. Moreover, some critics suggest a reorganised and revitalised SRP under Kem Sokha could reduce Hun Sen's comfortable majority in Parliament in 2008, and if Ranariddh is unable to secure sufficient seats to provide the two-thirds majority needed to form a government, Hun Sen will have to negotiate with the SRP.

Hun Sen is set to quickly clear this decade-old impediment. Following his return to Phnom Penh, Rainsy declared he would support the removal of the two-thirds requirement for a simple majority. In what would appear to be a quid pro quo, Hun Sen responded that his party would remove the archaic law making defamation a criminal offence.

For Ranariddh, the year of Rainsy's absence saw his party's fortunes tilt slightly upwards for a change, thanks to Hun Sen. The relationship between his and Hun Sen's parties is now stronger, and the comfort level higher. Still, there are no permanent friends in this business and Ranariddh's party will need to perform well in 2008 if it is to be taken seriously.

There are many possible permutations for 2008, but the pressing question now is whether the current "artificial" atmosphere will give way to more constructive engagement between the three major parties. This will certainly not be easy - and history is against the possibility.

However, Cambodia is an amazingly resilient country, a proud nation that refuses to be down despite all the calamities which have befallen it.

There have been times, albeit infrequent, when private quarrels were subsumed to the national interest. Such an opportunity now presents itself, at a time of growing maturity in Cambodian politics.

The key lies with Cambodia's politicians who have always known politics is the art of the possible. Friends of Cambodia hope they will grasp the opportunity.