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In Cambodia, it's the art of the possible

By Verghese Mathews - posted Wednesday, 1 March 2006


Cambodia's politicians now have a chance to put the country's interests ahead of personal enmities.

For a country that often gets bad press - sometimes of its own making - in the last fortnight Cambodia has demonstrated the adage that in politics, anything is possible, and in the practice of politics there are no permanent friends or enemies, only permanent interests.

In a heady week in Phnom Penh, proposals and counter-proposals moved with the proverbial speed of summer lightning - apologies were rendered, and accepted, royal pardon sought and readily granted. Prison gates opened and an embattled prodigal party leader found the confidence to return to the embrace of his loyal supporters.

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Detractors who - only a month earlier - had noisily condemned Cambodia going the way of Myanmar were among those most taken by surprise by the sudden turn of events.

The politicians kept negotiating cards close to their chests, amid the standard noise and haste, as they deftly worked at face-saving devices and fallback positions.

In the end, the sought-for compromise was neither complicated or cumbersome - if Opposition leader Sam Rainsy would publicly state that his oft-repeated allegations against Prime Minister Hun Sen and National Assembly leader Prince Norodom Ranariddh were entirely without basis, the plaintiffs would withdraw their respective suits.

Sam Rainsy promptly despatched the agreed-upon apology letters. On receiving them, Hun Sen, as Head of Government, formally requested that Head of State King Norodom Sihamoni grant the royal pardon, which came to pass on Sunday, February 5, 2006. On his return to Phnom Penh on February 10, Rainsy was all smiles and all hope.

He told the waiting media he was happy to have reached a compromise with the other two leaders, and was eager to put aside decade-long disputes and jointly work for the good of the country. He was also keen to go round the country meeting his people and spreading the reconciliation message.

The sudden end of the crisis, which had been smouldering since the 2003 general election, also caught most Sam Rainsy Party supporters by surprise.

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Some, tired of the long standoff, welcomed Rainsy's return and the chance for the former finance minister to play his legitimate role as leader of the Opposition. But there were, as could have been expected, other party members who felt Rainsy had yielded too much to Hun Sen - even if it had been for strategic reasons.

Hun Sen, Ranariddh and Rainsy have all made conciliatory statements in the last fortnight. Public reaction, from published press reports and the more down-to-earth internet comments, range from cautious optimism to scepticism that this unnatural state of affairs can be sustained.

It appears the majority, used to political acrobatics and one-upmanship, are waiting for further developments, before deciding whether celebrations are in order.

Detractors and the international media explain the recent uncharacteristic developments as resulting from international pressure in the lead-up to the important meeting of the donor countries in March.

There can be no doubt the donor meeting and annual aid of about $US600 million are extremely important for post-conflict Cambodia - one of the world's poorest countries, with an annual per capita income of only $ US320.

While donor unhappiness is of concern to the Government, it is difficult to believe it was the major motivating factor for the recent detente. Hun Sen is not that easily cowed. The catalyst was nearer home - the three parties saw a convergence of interests to end the protracted impasse.

Rainsy, who did well in the last elections, was, however, not as nimble in the horse-trading that followed, and was soon sidelined by the other two more experienced players. His subsequent year in self-imposed exile whittled away his support at home and wearied some of his international friends.

Moreover, new aspirants appeared in the SRP - among them human rights activist Kem Sokha, who was seen as more predictable than Rainsy and given less to rhetoric.

Importantly, Kem Sokha had the support of the powerful and generous US-based International Republican Institute and its unique style of promoting democracy in Cambodia.

The defining moment for Rainsy came when Kem Sokha boldly went to prison for his beliefs, while Rainsy was safe in France.

It was clear to Rainsy that if he did not return quickly to take control of his party, he might as well stay in Paris. A more charitable explanation is that Rainsy has a vision for Cambodia, the fulfilment of which requires his presence in the country to prepare his party for 2008.

Hun Sen is comfortable and in charge. He can afford to be magnanimous. Neither Rainsy nor Ranariddh is a threat. Nonetheless, he is a realist, and recognises that Rainsy in the self-chosen wilderness is a constant irritant. Moreover, some critics suggest a reorganised and revitalised SRP under Kem Sokha could reduce Hun Sen's comfortable majority in Parliament in 2008, and if Ranariddh is unable to secure sufficient seats to provide the two-thirds majority needed to form a government, Hun Sen will have to negotiate with the SRP.

Hun Sen is set to quickly clear this decade-old impediment. Following his return to Phnom Penh, Rainsy declared he would support the removal of the two-thirds requirement for a simple majority. In what would appear to be a quid pro quo, Hun Sen responded that his party would remove the archaic law making defamation a criminal offence.

For Ranariddh, the year of Rainsy's absence saw his party's fortunes tilt slightly upwards for a change, thanks to Hun Sen. The relationship between his and Hun Sen's parties is now stronger, and the comfort level higher. Still, there are no permanent friends in this business and Ranariddh's party will need to perform well in 2008 if it is to be taken seriously.

There are many possible permutations for 2008, but the pressing question now is whether the current "artificial" atmosphere will give way to more constructive engagement between the three major parties. This will certainly not be easy - and history is against the possibility.

However, Cambodia is an amazingly resilient country, a proud nation that refuses to be down despite all the calamities which have befallen it.

There have been times, albeit infrequent, when private quarrels were subsumed to the national interest. Such an opportunity now presents itself, at a time of growing maturity in Cambodian politics.

The key lies with Cambodia's politicians who have always known politics is the art of the possible. Friends of Cambodia hope they will grasp the opportunity.

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Article edited by Virginia Tressider.
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About the Author

Verghese Mathews, a former Singapore ambassador to Cambodia, is a visiting fellow at the Institute of Southeast Asian Studies.

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