Like what you've read?

On Line Opinion is the only Australian site where you get all sides of the story. We don't
charge, but we need your support. Here�s how you can help.

  • Advertise

    We have a monthly audience of 70,000 and advertising packages from $200 a month.

  • Volunteer

    We always need commissioning editors and sub-editors.

  • Contribute

    Got something to say? Submit an essay.


 The National Forum   Donate   Your Account   On Line Opinion   Forum   Blogs   Polling   About   
On Line Opinion logo ON LINE OPINION - Australia's e-journal of social and political debate

Subscribe!
Subscribe





On Line Opinion is a not-for-profit publication and relies on the generosity of its sponsors, editors and contributors. If you would like to help, contact us.
___________

Syndicate
RSS/XML


RSS 2.0

From left field: preaching to the converted doesn't attract swingers

By Warwick Powell - posted Monday, 15 October 2001


Labor is most comfortable when talking to the converted, but that’s not enough.

Winning elections is about building coalitions of support that give you the majority of the two-party preferred vote in the majority of electorates. That’s why targeting demographic groups to build this coalition of support is critical to efficient electoral politics.

If people still doubt the centrality of the "distribution of swings" to understanding political gains and losses, cast your mind back to the 1998 Queensland state election when One Nation won 11 seats in the Legislative Assembly with nowhere near 30 per cent of the state-wide two-party preferred vote. They experienced electoral success on that occasion because their swings were concentrated in a certain number of electorates.

Advertisement

So, how are the two main parties performing in 2001 when it comes to demographic targeting? As my previous comments would suggest, my hunch is that the Coalition is getting more impact for the buck as its policies are on the one hand more aggressively targeted to benefit (and woo) the typical swinging voter group, and on the other geared towards exploiting the cultural myopia and xenophobia of the One Nation demographic.

On the flip side, Labor’s GST roll back plan is hitting below the mark because the main beneficiaries will be those who earn low-medium to low incomes, who are not traditionally in the swinging voter category.

But tax is only one dimension, and Labor’s launch fleshes out its policy package as it seeks to build the coalition of support it needs to win government. So is the "complete" package going to make things any better for Labor?

I won’t argue the policy merits or otherwise of the parties’ proposals. Instead, the focus is narrowly on the demographic impact of policies from the perspective of voting behaviour.

Demographically, again it appears that Labor’s policies are geared to appeal most to those families and individuals earning low-medium incomes, public sector workers and university academics.

The politics of ‘Medicare card over credit card’ and ‘public schools versus private school privilege’ makes for powerful rhetoric to the converted. It might even help stem the flow to a small extent of low income, low-education One Nation types to the Coalition by tapping into the veins of hatred of cultural elitism and financial envy.

Advertisement

Much of the Knowledge Nation agenda is about consolidating and growing the public sector because, for a Beazley Government, this represents the best solution to social and economic problems, and funding teachers. Demographic research shows very clear that these two groups fall strongly into the ALP voter profile, with some overlap with the Democrats. They aren’t soft Coalition voters or ‘genuinely’ volatile voters.

Lastly, academics are being enticed by funding promises geared to public sector/university research activities. This is probably the only area where Labor is reaching out. The demographic correlation research covering the Ryan by-election showed very clear, and somewhat counter-intuitively, that university sector workers were not attracted to the Labor agenda.

According to the research conducted using John Black’s "Elaborate" demographic model,

"No evidence was found of heightened support for Labor amongst the ‘intelligentsia’. In fact the strongest correlation of the anti-Labor swing was university/TAFE teachers/lecturers and younger persons clustered around the University of Queensland". (See John Black’s article – Ryan By-Election Swings and Charts, www.australiandevelopmentstrategies.com.au.)

But in terms of "aspirational" individuals and families, comprising particularly those who are working two white-collar jobs, earning $50,000-$65,000 each per year and paying off a mortgage of $1,500 a month (or more if in Sydney), Labor’s policy mix is a shade off the mark.

Which is precisely why the ALP is right now very much out of the running in outer-suburban electorates like Moreton, Dickson and Longman in Queensland. Add to this list Petrie (which I had originally thought – wrongly as it now seems – could be won by Labor) and you’ve got a situation in Brisbane of Labor experiencing a net loss of 1. Even if it picks up Hinkler (unlikely) and Herbert (maybe), that’s a net gain of 1, which simply isn’t good enough if Labor wants to win government.

In this election campaign Labor has been strongly focused on its base, and has done little to reach out into lesser known territory, with the exception of the narrow intelligentsia demographic.

Policies have been geared to appeal to the traditional Labor voter (blue collar workers, earning the average wage with a high school education), and the very narrow constituency of the public sector and intelligentsia. Public sector workers have tended to be Labor supporters anyway (or Democrats-then-Labor voters) and the intelligentsia doesn’t make up much of the electorate.

  1. Pages:
  2. 1
  3. 2
  4. All


Discuss in our Forums

See what other readers are saying about this article!

Click here to read & post comments.

Share this:
reddit this reddit thisbookmark with del.icio.us Del.icio.usdigg thisseed newsvineSeed NewsvineStumbleUpon StumbleUponsubmit to propellerkwoff it

About the Author

Warwick Powell was an advisor to the Queensland Labor Government 1992-1996, and was involved in marginal electorate campaigning. He is now a research consultant in private practice.

Other articles by this Author

All articles by Warwick Powell
Related Links
Transpac Consulting
Article Tools
Comment Comments
Print Printable version
Subscribe Subscribe
Email Email a friend
Advertisement

About Us Search Discuss Feedback Legals Privacy