Ryan shows up weaknesses in the Queensland Liberal Party

In another sign of bad judgement the Santoro/Carroll faction are threatening to call a State Executive meeting to demand that Liberal Parliamentary Leader David Watson reinstate Santoro to the front bench. It is never a good idea to try to neuter your leader just before an election. Not only that, but Santoro was the architect of his own demise, having resigned in a fit of pique. Then he was found to have under-reported donations to his campaign. Recent filings by the Liberal Party suggest that this was by an amount of $50,000. Watson won’t agree, but the demand on its own will do him huge damage.

Ryan not only has the potential to play to Labor’s advantage in the state election, but the possibility of the Liberal Party losing it should not be discounted. The Bass by-election signalled the end of the Whitlam Labor government with a 19 per cent swing. Ryan won’t be another Bass, but an independent could conceivably achieve the 9.25 per cent swing required to win.

All the classic elements for a large protest vote are there. The electors are being taken for granted to the degree where the preselection is likely to be won through cynical manipulation by a candidate without any real community credentials. It is occurring in an atmosphere of general disgust with politicians, heightened by the Shepherdson Inquiry. And making Ryan a marginal seat is likely to give it more influence in government than it has at the moment, not less.

Safe seats where one of the major parties scores a low vote are also fertile ground for independents. That is why Beazley needs to run. While it is an outside chance that Labor could win, a Labor candidate is absolutely necessary to provide the right atmospherics for a good independent. Is there a good independent around? Not visibly, but shenanigans like those in Ryan tend to flush them out.

Ryan has been taken for granted for too long. John Moore was never an active local member, concentrating on the higher-level power games. As a former vice-president of the Queensland Liberals used to be fond of saying: "We will never know how safe Ryan is until John Moore goes." The way things are at the moment, he may have been too optimistic. Whatever scenario plays out in Ryan, it may be another generation until the Liberal Party really knows how safe it might be. If the Queensland Liberal Party can survive that long.