Dealing with climate change: three scenarios

There is still much disinformation, too much ignorant ranting, too much avoidance of responsibility and too little material change to the causes of the problem.

Scenario Three: Climate disaster and social catastrophe

In this scenario, as the effects of climate change worsen and its ramifications become evident, governments adopt an explicit two-tier policy of effecting some remediation, focusing on adaptation, but mostly avoiding real change.

Popular dissent rises, especially among the young, which only hardens the generational divide and makes politics increasingly toxic. Governments harden their position on climate 'terrorists' who are taking direct action, attacking the remaining fossil fuel operations - such as mining, factories and other high energy use activities – that are seen as carbon intensive. Massive anti-terrorist forces previously put in place to counter fundamentalist terrorism entirely shift their attention to climate terrorism.

In this hothouse context, civil discourse breaks down completely and democracy crumbles. Our main institutions – governments, corporations and militaries - are discredited and increasingly violent emotions flow through the populace, evidenced in vicious social media exchanges, street riots and terrorist acts.

Increasingly desperate geo-engineering projects are attempted in order to lesson atmospheric carbon. These projects have little positive impact (because we still know too little) and some even make the problem worse.

Increasingly desperate governments find it increasingly difficult to cooperate with each other, and open conflict breaks out. Eventually, nuclear weapons are used, armed conflict ensues and democracy collapses. Authoritarian leaders emerge to promote narrow nationalistic responses, making cooperation to deal with the basic threat impossible.

More and more people are afraid of the grim future and increasingly weird beliefs and movements emerge in response. Rationality itself is under siege.

With runaway warming and no meaningful response, the world spirals into chaos.

Of course none of these scenarios will occur - the world is more complicated than that - but we can only hope that what does happen is closer to the first scenario than the second two. That is, that our basic social and political values survive even as the threat is materially addressed. We still have time to go down this road, but we must act immediately to do so.