Where the jobs will be in 2023

Where the jobs are in 2018

The graph below shows the spread of existing job numbers by state, major metro region and inner city. Some things stand out:

• The dominance of NSW and Victoria as job engine rooms is unquestionable. And in both cases, those engine rooms are overwhelmingly the greater metro areas of the capital cities.

• Greater Brisbane by contrast has a lower share of overall state wide jobs.

• South Australia and Western Australia are dominated by greater metro regions.

• In all states and greater metro regions, the share of jobs in inner cities is not what some commentators would have you believe. Keeping in mind that the boundary for inner Sydney probably understates its contribution, the inner cities are still minority job markets in the greater scheme of things. Very high density job markets yes, but numerically small relative to greater metro or state wide jobs numbers.

Where the jobs will grow the most by 2023

The next graph shows where the Federal Government boffins expect jobs to grow the most. Once again, the future domination of NSW and Victoria on the national scene is apparent, as is the dominance of their greater metro regions of Sydney and Melbourne. Here are some problems I'd suggest for this:

• Australia is heavily exposed to the economic fortunes of two capital cities. A modest fall in future employment numbers in these centres, without a corresponding gain somewhere else, would tip the Australian economy into the toilet.

• The concentration of future jobs in Sydney and Melbourne explains a lot about the imbalance in our settlement policy. If this is where the jobs are, this is where people will continue to want to live – putting yet more population and infrastructure pressure on these two cities. The Federal Government is belatedly exploring options about sharing the population pressure around but I would suggest this will be academic until there is strategy for sharing future job growth across more centres than mostly just two.

• On the grand scheme of things, inner city regions remain significant but are not dominant. Meaning the vast majority of jobs will be in suburban areas across metro regions, as opposed to in city centres.

What is interesting about the Federal Labour Market Information Portal forecasts is that presume an increasing share of jobs growth will find its way to capital cities and - within capital cities - they presume an increasing share of jobs will find their way to city centres. The graph below summarises this.

For example, they believe that greater Melbourne's share of jobs in Victoria will increase from 77% to 85% in the period from 2018 to 2023, and that metro Sydney's share of NSW jobs will rise from 67% to 76%. Likewise, inner Sydney will increase its share of greater Sydney jobs from 8% to 12% in that period, with increases also predicted across the board for other centres.