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Is Trump rational?

By Michael Knox - posted Tuesday, 1 May 2018


Additional research conducted for the Brookings Institution, by Ed Glaeser, Larry Somers, and Ben Austin of Harvard, and published in March 2018, have expanded upon this analysis. They note that the economic convergence, of American regions has greatly slowed, and rates of long term unemployment have been diverging. The rate of non-employment for working aged men has nearly tripled over the last 50 years, generating a terrible social problem that is disproportionally centred in the eastern parts of the American heartland.

The researchers say that many measures of wellbeing suggest,that not working is far worse than low income employment. This motivates their focus on employment rather than incomes. They divide the USA into three regions: the prosperous coasts, the western heartland and the eastern heartland, the eastern heartland is comprised of areas which became states before 1840. The coasts have high incomes, but the western heartland also benefits from natural resources and high levels of historical education.

America's social problems, including non-employment, disability, opioid-related deaths and rising mortality, are concentrated in America's eastern heartland, States from Mississippi to Michigan, and generally east of the Mississippi and not on the Atlantic coast. The income and employment gaps between the three regions are not improving, but instead seem to be worsening.

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The transformations of the US economy into an information based economy, has improved the conditions of the White university educated class and worsened the conditions of the White working class. In spite of being the largest demographic group of voters, the White working class may have been neglected by the American left, perhaps because their views are not politically correct.

This group has been swooped up by Donald Trump. The American left hates what Trump says, because what he says is not politically correct. His policies are an articulation of the sentiments of the American White working class.

Trump has long had business operations in the American eastern heartland. One of his most impressive constructions is the Trump Tower on Wabash Avenue, beside the Chicago River. Trump conceived this building in 2001 as the tallest in the world. By the time it was finished in 2009, it was no longer the tallest building in the world, but it was the most impressive building in Chicago.

It is reasonable to assume, that as part of this process, he began to research the eastern heartland. It is also reasonable to assume, that the information covered again in the article by Thomas B Edsall, wasdiscovered by Trump, prior to his registration of the Ronald Reagan slogan "Make America Great Again" in July 2015.

He appears to have discovered the condition and attitudes of the White working class, and built his political platform upon them. The White working class has very different attitudes than the White college educated class.

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This article was first published by Morgans.

Disclaimer

The information contained in this report is provided to you by Morgans Financial Limited as general advice only, and is made without consideration of an individual's relevant personal circumstances. Morgans Financial Limited ABN 49 010 669 726, its related bodies corporate, directors and officers, employees, authorised representatives and agents ("Morgans") do not accept any liability for any loss or damage arising from or in connection with any action taken or not taken on the basis of information contained in this report, or for any errors or omissions contained within. It is recommended that any persons who wish to act upon this report consult with their Morgans investment adviser before doing so. Those acting upon such information without advice do so entirely at their own risk.

This report was prepared as private communication to clients of Morgans and is not intended for public circulation, publication or for use by any third party. The contents of this report may not be reproduced in whole or in part without the prior written consent of Morgans. While this report is based on information from sources which Morgans believes are reliable, its accuracy and completeness cannot be guaranteed. Any opinions expressed reflect Morgans judgement at this date and are subject to change. Morgans is under no obligation to provide revised assessments in the event of changed circumstances. This report does not constitute an offer or invitation to purchase any securities and should not be relied upon in connection with any contract or commitment whatsoever.



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About the Author

Michael Knox is Chief Economist and Director of Strategy at Morgans.

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All articles by Michael Knox

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