Like what you've read?

On Line Opinion is the only Australian site where you get all sides of the story. We don't
charge, but we need your support. Here�s how you can help.

  • Advertise

    We have a monthly audience of 70,000 and advertising packages from $200 a month.

  • Volunteer

    We always need commissioning editors and sub-editors.

  • Contribute

    Got something to say? Submit an essay.


 The National Forum   Donate   Your Account   On Line Opinion   Forum   Blogs   Polling   About   
On Line Opinion logo ON LINE OPINION - Australia's e-journal of social and political debate

Subscribe!
Subscribe





On Line Opinion is a not-for-profit publication and relies on the generosity of its sponsors, editors and contributors. If you would like to help, contact us.
___________

Syndicate
RSS/XML


RSS 2.0

Political geography

By Graham Young - posted Tuesday, 15 August 2000


Along with the fracturing of the mass market for politics and a belief that one side is as good as the other, goes the trend for people to want to be entertained in whatever it is that they are doing.

News and current affairs has shown a tendency towards infotainment, which reflects a public preference for higher entertainment values in the arts in general. It is partly fed by general access to the best performing products via the media of T.V., video, and recordings, and also by an increase in the numbers of people directly employed in entertainment. This has spilt over into areas that used not to be regarded as entertainment. For example, shopping centres now market an entertainment experience rather than things like wet and dry groceries, clothing, hardware and so on. We have become a society that cares about how things look, and then confuses looks with substance.

Given no strong anchors of habit or ideology, insubstantial issues like which party or leader is more likeable become serious issues in the voting decision.

Advertisement

Paul Keating

Electors tend to vote against, rather than for, parties. One of the strongest reasons for not voting Labor at the last two elections was probably Paul Keating. In the late ’70s and early ’80s Gough Whitlam performed the same function. Malcolm Fraser successfully used Whitlam for 3 elections in 5 years. Howard has used Keating for 2 elections in 4 years.

The next election is the first where he is unlikely to be a strong factor. That adds to the potential volatility of the vote. It also forces the parties to argue more about the future.

Marginal Seats

There are some structural things that make campaigns harder or easier. Incumbency brings with it greater resources. It also means that you do not have to win seats to stay in government, so limiting the workload and expense in terms of campaigning in seats. Oppositions not only have to keep the seats that they hold, but to win fresh seats from the Government.

At a Federal level there seems to be a tendency for Governments’ votes to erode from the moment that they gain office, losing seats with each succeeding election until they lose office. But there is no inviolate law that says this will always be the case, as Bob Carr demonstrated in the last NSW election.

Advertisement

However, a belief among journalists and observers that this is the case will have an effect on how the campaigns are framed and received. A more serious structural problem for the Government is that it holds twice as many seats by a margin of three per cent or less than the Opposition. This negates some of the benefits of incumbency.

There is also a belief that rural and regional areas may rise up against the government. If there is an uprising, it is unlikely to cost the government many, if any, seats, because of the margins of safety involved, but that threat will spread the defenses more widely, and therefore more thinly.

Conclusion

There are no steep mountains or deep ravines in the political landscape for this election. Both parties are reasonably evenly matched on the basis of the last election’s results. They need to put together coalitions of swinging voters on the basis of issues, promising progress, if not reform, and arguing about the future more than past records. Likeability and personal performance are likely to be deciding factors in the minds of many electors who do not see strong differences between the parties anymore, and are likely to vote in their own immediate interests. One Nation voters will be a factor, but depending on Indigenous affairs, are likely not to be decisive.

  1. Pages:
  2. 1
  3. 2
  4. Page 3
  5. All


Discuss in our Forums

See what other readers are saying about this article!

Click here to read & post comments.

Share this:
reddit this reddit thisbookmark with del.icio.us Del.icio.usdigg thisseed newsvineSeed NewsvineStumbleUpon StumbleUponsubmit to propellerkwoff it

About the Author

Graham Young is chief editor and the publisher of On Line Opinion. He is executive director of the Australian Institute for Progress, an Australian think tank based in Brisbane, and the publisher of On Line Opinion.

Other articles by this Author

All articles by Graham Young
Related Links
Australian Federal Parliament
Photo of Graham Young
Article Tools
Comment Comments
Print Printable version
Subscribe Subscribe
Email Email a friend
Advertisement

About Us Search Discuss Feedback Legals Privacy