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Saudi Arabia's act of strategic defiance

By Alon Ben-Meir - posted Monday, 11 January 2016


Moreover, Saudi Arabia intended to exclude Iran from playing an active role in the search for a solution to Syria's civil war while impeding the growing alliance between Moscow and Tehran to control the predominantly Sunni Syria. Similarly, as Saudi Arabia is fighting a proxy war against Iran in Syria, Iraq, and Yemen, it is determined not to allow Iran free regional reign.

By creating the crisis, Saudi Arabia also hopes to disrupt the warming relations between Iran and the US, which it views as contrary to its interests. In addition, Saudi Arabia hopes to undermine the EU's drive for rapprochement with Iran, as it otherwise has the potential of becoming the largest trading partner with the EU.

The ransacking of the Saudi embassy in Tehran was seen by the Saudis as a 'blessing in disguise,' playing into the Saudis' hands and putting Iran's President Rouhani on the defensive, prompting Iran to condemn the act. This has boosted the Saudi position and potentially changed the conflict dynamic between the two countries.

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The US is rightly concerned about the potential escalation of the conflict between the two countries, which can benefit ISIS and potentially lead to another unforeseen conflagration that may engulf several states in the area. To that end, the Obama administration must immediately take several measures:

First, the US should seek to postpone the convening of the January 25 international conference in Geneva that seeks a diplomatic solution to Syria's civil war, in order to give Saudi Arabia and Iran a calming period as the participation of both countries is central to finding any lasting political solution in Syria.

Second, the US should impose new sanctions against Iran for testing intercontinental ballistic missiles in violation of UNSC Resolution 1929. This measure is particularly important not only to appease Saudi Arabia, but also to send a clear message to Tehran that it cannot violate international agreements with impunity.

Third, it would be wise for Secretary of State John Kerry to travel to Riyadh, even for only symbolic reasons, and reiterate the US' commitment to Saudi national security. In addition, his visit would allay the Gulf states' concerns that the US is being more critical of Saudi Arabia than Iran, a perception that could further reduce US influence, especially in Riyadh when it is needed the most.

Fourth, although the US is focusing on deescalating rather than mediating the Saudi-Iran crisis, it has no choice at this juncture but to play a more active role with the objective of resuming the Geneva talks at a later date to end the tragic civil war in Syria.

The manner in which the US has conducted itself in connection with the Iran deal, its unwillingness to project itself more aggressively in Syria, its lack of support (as perceived by the Saudis) of the Saudi role in the conflict in Yemen, and its reaction to the current crisis, gave rise to the Saudis' deep concerns about Washington's ultimate goal in the region, especially now that the US no longer depends on the Gulf's oil.

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Although the US should continue to seek good relations with Iran, it must now conduct a balancing act to allay the concerns of its Arab allies in the Gulf while showing some toughness in relation to Iran, which in fact is needed to preserve the Iran deal and prevent another regional crisis.

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About the Author

Dr. Alon Ben-Meir is a professor of international relations at the Center for Global Affairs at NYU. He teaches courses on international negotiation and Middle Eastern studies.

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