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What's really at stake with the Iran nuclear deal?

By Robert Berke - posted Friday, 21 August 2015


That's not to say that the US and Iran are destined to become close allies, but to recognize that they have important shared interests in combatting radical Islam that could lead to far greater cooperation.

There are some who claim that despite denials, the US and Iran are already cooperating in the West's battle against ISIS in Iraq and Syria. If so, that could go far in supporting Obama's goal to pivot from the Middle East and towards Asia.

As stated here, another overriding US goal is to prevent Iran's drift eastward into a commercial and military alliance with Russia and China, as a partner in the recently formed Shanghai Cooperation Organization, the Eurasian Economic Union, and Silk Road project. Instead, the US wants Iran positioned as a competitor to Russia for EU and Asian energy markets, and as a bulwark against Russian and Chinese expansion.

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The problem for the administration is that hard-liners at home and abroad, having failed to kill the deal, are continuing their efforts to stop any broader entente emerging between the Iran, its neighbors, and the world.

Here, the road is likely to be far less smooth for Obama. Unlike the nuclear deal that was undertaken under the banner of a UN resolution, any further US political deals with Iran would be subject to congressional approval, something few experts view as forthcoming.

What with these formidable barriers to entente, a continuing drift eastward by Iran towards a closer commercial and military relationship with Russia and China remains a strong possibility.

But I think that the nearly two years of nuclear negotiations with Iran, if it accomplished nothing else, restored Iran to the position of a recognized regional power.

Iran is also unlikely to forget that both China and Russia voted in the UN to support sanctions against Iran. Nor is the fact likely to be ignored that Russia also declined to breach sanctions to deliver a previously contracted system of advanced missile defense systems to its erstwhile ally. Russia's sudden close relationship with the Saudis is also not likely to sit well in Tehran.

For Iran, an over-riding goal in the deal was the repeal of sanctions, enabling the country to regain its former status as OPEC's third largest producer. With that goal more realistic in light of a successful conclusion of the recent negotiations, Iran is unlikely to adopt policies to antagonize its newfound partners.

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Instead of becoming captive to either Russia or China, Iran is far more likely to promote itself as an anti-terror partner with both west and east, while building investment markets with both sides of the 'great game' for its own benefit.

At the same time, Iran is leading the movement to form a united front against terrorism, partnering with the US , the Gulf Kingdoms, Turkey, Russia, and Syria.

Conclusion

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About the Author

Robert Berke writes for OilPrice.com.

Creative Commons LicenseThis work is licensed under a Creative Commons License.

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