Mike Baird’s assets test

Going into the election Newman's strongest suit was the economy, and this should have been the centrepiece of his re-election pitch. Instead privatisation and the assertion that he had a "strong team, strong plan" which would yield a "stronger Queensland" became the centrepiece.

Instead of campaigning against his opponents he tried to bribe his way back into the office with 20% of the privatisation proceeds.

The whole campaign became an $8bn extension of Christmas morning, paid for with the privatisation debit card and leaving voters mistrustful of the distant uncle showering them with gifts.

Particularly as his own electorate got a disproportionate share of the goodies, and he threatened that if they didn't vote for him he would become Bad Santa and take the presents away.

Newman didn't make out a case for the sales. There were no graphs showing the massive escalation of debt under Labor combined with a litany of Labor failings.

The LNP also alienated non-Greens minor party voters costing them seats.

These voters don't like Labor, but they are mistrustful of asset sales. They don't like debt, live life close to the financial edge, and are worried about jobs, education and health.

They're risk averse: a bird in the hand is worth two in the bush. Which means while they will be sceptical of asset sales, if they think it is necessary to make life more secure, caused by Labor's mismanagement, they will take it out on Labor, not the privatiser.

They also need to see how privatised assets will make their lives better, and that does not mean building a sports stadium in the nearest town.

Again, our polling showed that the strongest arguments against Labor in Queensland were that it didn't deserve to be re-elected yet, and that it needed at least one more term in opposition.

The ground needed to be prepared for this as almost no one thought that such a big swing could happen.

Again, this should not be a problem for the NSW government. They can point to Queensland. Or the latest Newspoll which has the Coalition on 43% and the Labor/Greens de facto alliance on 44%.