Like what you've read?

On Line Opinion is the only Australian site where you get all sides of the story. We don't
charge, but we need your support. Here’s how you can help.

  • Advertise

    We have a monthly audience of 70,000 and advertising packages from $200 a month.

  • Volunteer

    We always need commissioning editors and sub-editors.

  • Contribute

    Got something to say? Submit an essay.


 The National Forum   Donate   Your Account   On Line Opinion   Forum   Blogs   Polling   About   
On Line Opinion logo ON LINE OPINION - Australia's e-journal of social and political debate

Subscribe!
Subscribe





On Line Opinion is a not-for-profit publication and relies on the generosity of its sponsors, editors and contributors. If you would like to help, contact us.
___________

Syndicate
RSS/XML


RSS 2.0

Mike Baird’s assets test

By Graham Young - posted Wednesday, 11 February 2015


Privatising assets didn't cost Newman his election. Ignoring basic politics did.

While asset sales are not necessarily a vote winner, they're not necessarily a vote loser.

New South Wales' Mike Baird can privatise assets, and become premier in his own right.

Advertisement

Of course Labor has jumped on the Queensland election. Their constituency will back them, and they might get lucky and panic the Baird government making them look weak and divided.

The Queensland swing isn't as strong as it looks as most if it is attributable to a natural correction after an unnaturally large margin at the last election. The swing back from 63% two-party preferred was always going to be of the order of 10 percentage points.

A similar reversion to the mean is happening in NSW.

We ran an online qualitative exit poll, so we have a very good idea of what drove the vote on the day in Queensland.

Of those who deserted the government this election, 29% nominated asset sales as the most important election issue, 17% Newman and 17% style of government. That was followed by the Environment on 8% and the Economy and Jobs 8%.

So the premier and the government (34% combined) were the top issue, followed by asset sales. Despite the noise, alleged cuts to "frontline services" didn't rank as an important issue, while the culling of the public service went more to style than substance.

Advertisement

But voters don't always vote on issues. 33% of swingers said they were voting strategically, sending the government a message, 21% voted against Newman and 13% against the style of government, and only 13% against asset sales.

This makes strategic and style issues the pre-eminent ones.

It's a reasonable bet that if the LNP had not had Newman as leader they could have won the election despite privatisations. Baird is not Newman.

  1. Pages:
  2. Page 1
  3. 2
  4. 3
  5. All

This article was first published in The Australian.



Discuss in our Forums

See what other readers are saying about this article!

Click here to read & post comments.

13 posts so far.

Share this:
reddit this reddit thisbookmark with del.icio.us Del.icio.usdigg thisseed newsvineSeed NewsvineStumbleUpon StumbleUponsubmit to propellerkwoff it

About the Author

Graham Young is chief editor and the publisher of On Line Opinion. He is executive director of the Australian Institute for Progress, an Australian think tank based in Brisbane, and the publisher of On Line Opinion.

Other articles by this Author

All articles by Graham Young

Creative Commons LicenseThis work is licensed under a Creative Commons License.

Photo of Graham Young
Article Tools
Comment 13 comments
Print Printable version
Subscribe Subscribe
Email Email a friend
Advertisement

About Us Search Discuss Feedback Legals Privacy