The Ukrainian domino

The prime minister, Recep Tayyip ErdoÄŸan, had aspired to Turkey joining the EU from his time as mayor of Istanbul in the mid-1990s. But as he brands his opponents and protesters "terrorists", supposedly guided by some Western countries, it seems he has revised his plan and shifted Turkey's orientation eastwards. Although the situation between Turkey and Syria is still very critical, Iran is trying to reduce tensions to undermine US strategy and form an alternative regional coalition in favor of the Eastern powers. Even Iraq, under Saddam Hussein an ally of Russia, is moving toward this bloc, under the considerable influence of Iran on its Shia-dominated government. And while the Arab League summit in Kuwait in late March underlined its divisions over Syria, Lebanon-or at least its dominant Hizbullah faction-is another supporter of the regime in Damascus.

Obama's first visit to Saudi Arabia days later provided telling evidence of the emergence of a new bloc. White House positions, particularly its eventual support for the overthrow of Hosni Mubarak in Egypt and its failure to secure support for the rebels in Syria,have shocked the Saudi royal family and raised concerns that backing from the US, despite its reliance on Saudi oil,could not be relied on in future. According to Saudi media reports, anxieties over the Syrian civil war and US nuclear negotiation with Iran were top of King Abdullah's concerns.

The main mission of Obama's visit was to assure the Saudis that he was not neglecting them: officials conceded "tactical differences" but claimed "strategic interests" were aligned. And the Washington Post reported that the US was ready to increase covert aid to Syrian rebels under a "new plan" which included training by the CIA. Yet while Saudi Arabia, the most powerful Sunni country, needs solid guarantees from the US to remain an ally, Iran, the most powerful Shiite state, leans towards the Eastern power configuration and encourages other regional governments to join this emerging bloc.

The latest Freedom House report suggests that 80% of Russians believe that political and economic strength are more important than a "good democracy". (Meanwhile, 84% of Chinese are strongly supportive of their government and believe that China is able to propose an alternative to "Western" democracy.) Even if for Obama "Russia is only a regional power", to challenge his view Russia seems already to have set in train its own political scenario. To halt the "NATO progress toward the East", as the Russian media put it, as well as achieving a more influential role, the Kremlin has started its procedure.