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Abe charts new course for Japan

By Graham Cooke - posted Wednesday, 14 August 2013


The crushing victory of Japan's Liberal Democratic Party in Upper House elections in July, to match its capture of the Lower House last December, puts exceptional powers into the hands of Prime Minister Shinzo Abe.

The indications are he will not be afraid to use them to remake the image that Japan has presented to the world since the establishment of the Yoshida Doctrine shortly after World War II.

Named after Japan's first post-war Prime Minister, Shigeru Yoshida, the doctrine stresses economic development and a low diplomatic profile, in keeping with Article Nine of the country's constitution which renounces war as a means of settling international disputes. Yoshida believed that all questions of Japan's defence against any future threats should be left to the United States.

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Abe, variously described as a nationalist and the most right-wing Japanese leader of the post-war era, has said he would like to revise Article Nine. He has increased defence expenditure and been happy to allow himself to be photographed beside tanks and fighter aircraft.

Chair of Japan-US Relations at George Washington University, Mike Mochizuki, said Abe is accelerating a trend which has been developing since the 1980s when Japan was little more than a protectorate of the US.

"The country has emerged as an international security actor and is now playing an important role in United Nations peacekeeping programs," Professor Mochizuki said.

"This has resulted from incremental reactions to events. Initially it was the deployment of Soviet Union forces in the Pacific; then it responded to the situations in Afghanistan and Iraq and later still the rise of China and the North Korean missile crisis. It has been pushing the envelope for a number of years."

But will the envelope finally tear? Professor Mochizuki believes for the moment it is still intact, but that could change. "It would be safe to say that as of now the Yoshida Doctrine has not been abandoned - but it is being recalibrated," he said.

"I believe we are approaching a turning point when there will be challenges to the doctrine."

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It may be that Abe will first use the political capital he is gaining from his economic successes to prepare the way for fundamental changes in Japan's international profile. The country's first quarter 2013 growth of 3.5 per cent was the best in the developed world; the International Monetary Fund has predicted Japan's growth for the year will be two per cent, and 2.8 per cent in 2014 - well below the records set in the glory years pre-1990s, but still healthy by current international standards.

However, the Executive Director of the Pacific Forum Centre for Strategic and International Studies, Brad Glosserman, says Abe has a long way to go to shake free of the malaise created by the Global Financial Crisis and that some of his traditional views on Japan's society may get in the way.

"For instance, is he prepared to get more women into the workforce when he has very conservative views on the role of the family and women's place in it?" Glosserman asked.

"The country needs those women to be fully productive, but they never get the top jobs; they never get permanent employment. After marriage they are expected to stay at home and look after the children and by the time the kids are off their hands they have to look after aged parents because there is no real care system for seniors. One answer would be immigration of people qualified to look after children or old people, but that is simply not going to happen in Japan."

Strangely, considering his electoral success, Abe's views are often at loggerheads to those of the population at large. Surveys have shown that there is little enthusiasm for Japan becoming a great power; younger Japanese say they are even comfortable with the country dropping from being a first-tier economic force - opinions quite the opposite from those of their Prime Minister.

Since the 2011 Fukushima disaster and the shutdown of all but one of the country's nuclear reactors, around 70 per cent of Japanese say they are in favour of doing away with nuclear power altogether. In contrast, Abe wants the reactors up and running again as soon as possible.

The reason why the electorate is still prepared to go along with Abe, despite disagreeing with many of his views, lies in a growing distrust, even fear, of China. Many voters in last month's election cited the dispute over the Diaoyo Islands, which Japan claims as part of the Okinawa Prefecture but China says it has administered since the 14th century, as their reason for voting for Abe, who they saw as a leader who would stand up for the nation's interests. The fact that oil reserves exist in the vicinity has a lot to do with both sides refusing to budge on their respective positions.

This month Japan launched its biggest warship since World War II. The Izumo is officially classed as a destroyer, but also has a large flight deck capable of carrying up to 14 helicopters, which suspicious Chinese sources say could easily be refitted to launch fighter aircraft.

Is this breaching the country's pacifist constitution? Government defenders say no, as the vessel is not fitted for offensive capabilities and would be used only for support in natural disasters, such as a tsunami, but the envelope is certainly bulging.

The Prime Minister believes that his program for reviving the national economy; his 'three arrows'- ending the deflationary cycle, fiscal stimulus to encourage demand and structural reform to create more opportunities for growth - will give him the elbow room to push through his constitutional reforms, something viewed with alarm by neighbours China and South Korea.

Abe is on record as saying that economics is the source of national power. "Without a strong economy, we cannot have diplomatic influence or dependable security. I want to make Japan's presence felt in the world," he said recently

But that needn't mean a newly belligerent Japan confronting China and raising tensions in East Asia. Abe's right wing credentials are beyond reproach, just as US President Richard Nixon's were in 1972 when he shocked the world by visiting Beijing and recognising the People's Republic of China. Abe could similarly silence right wing voices and move for better relations with South Korea and China - even to the point of coming to a compromise over the Diaoyo Islands.

Whichever way he jumps, Abe is destined to end the quiet drift that has characterised Japan's international relations over the past 60 years. Both China and the US will need to take note of this forceful new player emerging on the world stage.

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About the Author

Graham Cooke has been a journalist for more than four decades, having lived in England, Northern Ireland, New Zealand and Australia, for a lengthy period covering the diplomatic round for The Canberra Times.


He has travelled to and reported on events in more than 20 countries, including an extended stay in the Middle East. Based in Canberra, where he obtains casual employment as a speech writer in the Australian Public Service, he continues to find occasional assignments overseas, supporting the coverage of international news organisations.

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