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Guns versus votes in Pakistan's election

By Graham Cooke - posted Monday, 8 April 2013


The announcement that Pakistan will go to the polls on 11 May has resulted in the expected upsurge in terrorist attacks. In Peshawar a small army of militants attacked a power station with assault weapons and rocket propelled grenades, killing eight people and taking four others hostage.

A few hours later a bomb blast at a checkpoint near Karachi killed four security personnel and injured four others.

These incidents followed a weekend blast at the campaign office of a supporter of Pakistan People's Party leader Asif Ali Zardari, killing two; an election commissioner was shot dead and pamphlets were distributed in Baluchistan Province threatening violence to anyone who turns up at a polling station on election day.

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While there are a number of terrorist organisations operating the country, some of them violently antagonistic to each other, the most likely group behind these outrages is Tenrik-i-Taliban, more simply known as the Pakistani Taliban.

Democratic elections are anathema to the Taliban, which regularly launches strikes from its stronghold in remote South Waziristan. Its philosophy is based on a strict interpretation of sharia law administered by clerics and enforced without recourse to dissent or argument. Overtures to bring it into the political mainstream in return for laying down its weapons have been rebuffed or simply ignored.

The current poll, Pakistan's first in which an elected civilian government has completed its term and offered itself for re-election, is an indication that for all its troubles, democracy is beginning to take hold in the country. Only by throwing everything into a campaign of disruption and intimidation, reducing voter turnout to a level where it can challenge the legitimacy of any government formed, can the Taliban maintain the fiction that its form of 'government' is best for and preferred by the population.

But despite the clear and present dangers there are hopes of an improvement on the 40 per cent turnout in 2008. In an interview, the chief election commissioner, Fakhruddin Ebrahim, said the country's predominantly young electorate was hungry for the international legitimacy that an administration clearly representing the will of the people would bring.

"We have a free media which clearly represents an enthusiasm for this election – I believe we could go as high as a 60 per cent turnout," he says.

"Of course there is continuing violence and the threat of violence to come and I don't think anyone can promise that the vote, when it is held, will be completely free and fair, but I think the 2013 election will be a turning point."

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Others are less optimistic. One anonymous official said the Taliban realised it would be lucky to get 10 per cent of the vote if it stood as a political party. "Its indiscriminate bombings have alienated even those who might be its natural supporters," he said.

"However, it only takes a few hundred, perhaps less, fanatics to spread fear throughout the country and severely disrupt the election process."

Which throws a massive responsibility on the security forces to counter these threats. Former military dictator Pervez Musharraf, who has returned to Pakistan after years of self-imposed exile to lead his All Pakistan Muslim League in the election, believes the army should actually conduct the poll, but in a country which has seen military coups in the past, this might be one step too far.

There are a number of crucial reasons why this election should produce a legitimate result and a strong and united government. Chief among these are how to deal with the withdrawal of American forces from Afghanistan, and the continuing internal conflict with Islamist insurgents which has claimed the lives of almost 50,000 citizens over the past decade. .

Then there are the more 'normal' problems – Pakistan's unemployment rate is officially a reasonable 5.5 per cent, but because of the way it is counted is likely to be far higher; the grinding poverty of the bottom 10 per cent of the population; infant mortality which is among the highest in Asia; a failing education system with Pakistan having one of the highest illiteracy rates in the world.

But perhaps the most significant factor is contained in a recent British Council survey which found that close to 100 per cent of Pakistanis under 30 believed their country was heading in the wrong direction.

"We have power cuts almost on a daily basis. Sometimes you can't get fuel and even food in the markets is short," one said.

"And always there is this war on terror – vast amounts of money are consumed, but no progress is made.

"Young people want to live normal lives – to go out at night without having to worry about where the next suicide bomber is lurking. When are we going to have a government that can tackle these problems?"

Pakistan's 86 million voters will have more than 100 parties to choose from, but only three have any chance of claiming power. These are:

The incumbent Pakistan People's Party, led by Zardari, who is seeking to maintain a political dynasty similar to the Gandhis in India. He is the widower and son-in-law of Pakistani presidents, and aims to eventually pass on the mantle to his son, 24-year-old Bilawal.

He is a tough deal-maker, who has been responsible for getting some landmark legislation through Parliament in the past five years, but in the process has made many enemies.

Nawaz Sharif, President of the Pakistan Muslim League is like Zardari a political veteran. A former Prime Minister he is backed by his family's wealth in real estate and agriculture holdings. Ousted from power by the Musharraf coup in 1999, he spent time in exile in Saudi Arabia.

The Muslim League is the oldest and most organised party in the country and is favoured by the upwardly mobile and emerging middle class. However, fears that in an attempt to end internal violence Sharif may make too many concession to terrorist groups persists.

Imran Khan is Chair of Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf. Obviously far better known as the former captain of the Pakistani cricket team, he has undoubted popular appeal. His party does not hold a single seat in the National Assembly, but such is the enthusiasm for his 'new style' of politics that if could well hold a pivotal role in the next Parliament, if not an outright majority.

His promise to meet graft and corruption head on is appealing in a country where nothing is done unless money or favours are passed, but weak party organisation outside the major cities could count against him.

Only one thing is certain. These three are going to be playing significant roles after 11 May as Pakistan meets the challenges of a second consecutive five years of civilian rule.

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About the Author

Graham Cooke has been a journalist for more than four decades, having lived in England, Northern Ireland, New Zealand and Australia, for a lengthy period covering the diplomatic round for The Canberra Times.


He has travelled to and reported on events in more than 20 countries, including an extended stay in the Middle East. Based in Canberra, where he obtains casual employment as a speech writer in the Australian Public Service, he continues to find occasional assignments overseas, supporting the coverage of international news organisations.

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