School reform in a climate of political instability

ii) The federal government will offer a nominal capital injection – that will also satisfy Treasury’s deliberations for the May budget – and will call on the states to commit funding injections in accord with percentage allocations thrashed out at the April COAG meeting.

Political outcome: Such resolution will be triumphantly announced by the PM as initiating major school reforms, aka, “believe me when I commit the government to education improvement for all Australian students”. The government’s budget allocation will fall well short of the $6.5 billion being bandied about as the annual funding injection required to implement constructive schooling reform.

iii)Because it seems highly improbable the vexatious issue of SES modifications can be finalised before the April COAG meeting – and because financial implications resulting from any changes to the AGSRC measurement will impact on state budgets – the government will announce with much fanfare that the current SES determined recurrent funding to non-government schools will be extended beyond 31 December 2013 to 31 December 2014 thereby retaining funding to independent schools.

Political outcome: The Prime Minister will brazenly claim this result assures the non-government sector – and those parents wishing to vote Labor – that her party cares for and understands all education sectors and promotes a non-discriminatory funding policy. This outcome sustains earlier government statements that independent schools will ‘not lose a dollar’ of funding under her government. The states will be blamed for any subsequent non-delivery of funding support.

School reform and education funding will remain fundamentally inseparable from political machinations, an all-too apparent reality leading up to the September election.

Ms Gillard needs a circuit breaker to offset the recent political upheavals to show her government has not lost its fundamental task to present acceptable policy to the Australian electorate. She will desperately demand school reform provide that surge in political current although with many elements of the Gonski review being progressively eviscerated perhaps schools are facing intermittent power failures rather than illuminating long term improvement.

A travesty for Australian students will occur if the momentum to positively improve school outcome and student performance is lost or because continuing political partisanship fails to deliver adequate government assistance to education.

Political infighting or subsequent inertia from the incoming federal government in September will further inhibit that momentum which, when lost, will be extremely difficult to regain.

In the current polarised political climate positive indicators of progress are barely discernible.