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The dreadful dilemma over Iran

By Julie Bishop - posted Thursday, 16 August 2012


According to the report each person at the meeting reported on detailed defensive preparations should Iran come under attack.

Some of the military officers detailed the potential retaliation to such attacks, including plans for terrorist attacks around the world, ballistic missile launches at targets in Israel, attacks against Israel from Lebanon-based group Hezbollah, shipping mines in the Strait of Hormuz and missile attacks on Saudi oil infrastructure.

Reports from Israel confirm that the government is actively considering its options and this is the subject of public debate.

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This is in contrast to past Israeli strikes against nuclear targets (Iraq 1981 and Syria 2007) which were surprise attacks without widespread public debate leading up to them.

Political leaders and former members of the Israeli security apparatus are leading the current debate within Israel about whether or not to launch strikes against Iran.

Defence Minister Ehud Barak said that Israeli intelligence, combined with intelligence gathered by the United States, make a powerful argument for strikes to be "extremely urgent".

Former head of Mossad Ephraim Halevy said last week that, "If I were an Iranian, I would be very worried in the next twelve weeks."

There is serious doubt as to whether Israel has the capability to inflict a blow sufficiently grievous that it would cause a lengthy delay to the Iranian nuclear program.

A failed attempt would provide Iran with the excuse that it needs to more openly pursue nuclear weapons.

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Many analysts believe that while Israel can certainly cause significant damage, it will need the involvement of the United States to more seriously damage the heavily fortified nuclear facilities in Iran.

Another complicating factor is the timing of the United States presidential election between incumbent Barack Obama and Republican challenger Mitt Romney.

President Obama has declared that the US will not allow Iran to build a nuclear weapon, while Governor Romney has declared that his administration would prevent Iran obtaining nuclear weapons capability.

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About the Author

Julie Bishop is the Federal Member for Curtin, Deputy Leader of the Opposition and Shadow Minister for Foreign Affairs.

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