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Mohammed El Baradei is no shoo-in as Egyptian leader

By Damien Cheong - posted Thursday, 10 February 2011


The last two weeks of protests and unrest in Egypt have meant one thing - the end of the Mubarak regime is near. As Mubarak’s allies devise a face-saving way for him to leave office, former allies like Tony Blair have already begun talking about engaging with his successor. Who? And more importantly, what side of the political spectrum would this individual represent is, at present, the million dollar question.

Pundits have suggested that the Islamists in the form of the Muslim Brotherhood are poised to take over the reins of government. The Brotherhood is, after all, the oldest and perhaps most organised opposition group in Egypt, and it has the numbers, the credibility as well as the capability to do so despite being outlawed since 1954.

The Brotherhood’s quest for political control has been enthusiastically supported by Iran. Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei has repeatedly encouraged Egyptians to put an Islamic regime into power, and has even credited the uprising against Mubarak to the 1979 Iranian revolution. Iran’s support for the Brotherhood is currently limited to moral/rhetorical support but could well turn into tangible support in terms of finance and even weapons if the Brotherhood gains political ground.

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However, it is not in the Brotherhood’s interests to align itself with Iran at this stage - in addition to religious ideological differences (Iran is Shiite and the Muslim Brotherhood is Sunni), it would open itself to accusations of being an Iranian client, which would jeopardise its chances of securing political power.

Until its position is secured, the Brotherhood must be seen as a purely domestic opposition group that is working towards the advancement of the Egyptian people. It is for this reason that it has recently opted to enter into dialogue with Mubarak’s recently-appointed Vice President Omar Suleiman to discuss the crisis and solutions for the interim.

A possible Islamist regime in Egypt with Iranian support has naturally caused much discomfort to the US and its allies, and in particular, Israel. The Brotherhood has already indicated that it does not recognise Israel and would not adhere to the existing Egyptian-Israeli ‘peace’ treaty. This would threaten current security and economic arrangements between the two countries, which are of strategic importance to Israel.

For instance, Egypt supplies about 40% of natural gas to Israel, and a cessation of this would result in a significant increase in the cost of fuel. The Netanyahu government is also fearful that Israel would face a greater security threat on its Western border from a possible collaboration between the Brotherhood and HAMAS in Gaza.

And if an Islamist regime was successfully installed in Egypt, Islamists in other Middle-eastern countries, such as Jordan, would be encouraged to seize power. Israel would literally be surrounded by hostile neighbours, and its worst fears and often cited basis of its security doctrine would be realised.

The US, too, has much to be concerned about. Its influence in the Middle East would be drastically curtailed as an Islamist Egypt would most likely align itself with America’s emerging superpower rival China. It is for this reason that the US has been willing to reassess its approach towards the Brotherhood at least in the short-run.

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It cannot be said with any degree of certainty that this amicability towards the brotherhood will continue in the long run. Thus the ideal candidate to succeed Mubarak, as far as the US and Israel are concerned, is an individual who can be relied upon to protect their interests in the long run. But the Egyptian uprising is not about protecting US and Israeli interests is it?

Egypt’s next president faces several daunting challenges. He/she is expected to: (a) narrow the gap between rich and poor; (b) rebuild the economy; (c) reduce unemployment; (d) evaluate Egypt’s relationship with Israel. Three candidates have emerged as possible contenders for the presidency. The first is Mohamed El Baradei. Recently returned to Egypt following the start of the uprising, El Baradei has been working tirelessly to boost his credibility among Egyptians. He has participated in the uprising, launched scathing criticisms against Mubarak, sought dialogue with the other opposition groups, and is actively trying to broker terms for a transitional government in preparation for Mubarak’s imminent departure. He has hinted at his ambitions for political office as well, saying: “Naturally I want to play a part in the future, but who stands in the election, that’s really not so important at the moment. But if the people want it, of course I would be available.”

Perceived as an intellectual, moderate and advocate for democracy, El Baradei is well thought of in international circles. He is widely-known for his role as Director General of the International Atomic Energy Agency from 1997 to 2009. However, El Baradei is effectively an outsider in Egyptian politics. He has spent most of his life abroad, has insufficient street credit and is perceived as pro-West by many Egyptians.

To overcome this problem, El Baradei has promised that if he does become President, he will adopt a pro-Arab rather than a pro-Western approach that will align Egyptian interests with the rest of the Arab world. He has also sought to cultivate ties with the Muslim Brotherhood in a possible effort to seek their endorsement for the presidency.

This collaboration is highly advantageous for both parties: (a) Brotherhood support provides El Baradei with an immediate constituency and eliminates the need to develop one; (b) Brotherhood’s endorsement of El Baradei would expedite its re-entry into the political arena and reduce their risk of being marginalized by the West. While El Baradei is Muslim, he does not subscribe to Islamist doctrine. Hence, this collaboration with the Brotherhood would be at best, a temporary marriage of convenience.

The second candidate is the current Vice-President and former Director of the Egyptian General Intelligence Directorate (GID) - Omar Suleiman. Suleiman is best known internationally for his role as mediator between Egypt, Israel and HAMAS, as well as mediator between Fatah and HAMAS. He possesses impressive military credentials, commands the respect of the Army and is a close ally of Mubarak.

Suleiman is said to have a deep distrust of Iran, favours maintaining close ties with the US, supports the current peace agreement with Israel, and is strongly against the Muslim Brotherhood. In fact as Director of the GID, one of his main tasks was to clamp down on the Brotherhood, which often entailed arbitrary arrests, indefinite detention and torture of members/supporters.

He is also credited with assisting in the US’ controversial rendition program. His worldview and former responsibilities, make him an ideal candidate for those that wish to maintain the status quo in Egypt (particularly the US and Israel), however, it does not make him popular among Egyptians.

It is highly unlikely that he will ascend to the presidency unaided, and for now, will continue to play the role of maintaining stability until a new President is elected.

A recent entry into the presidential race is Amr Moussa. Moussa was formerly Egyptian Minister of Foreign Affairs from 1991 to 2001 and is currently the Secretary-General of the Arab League. He has expressed his desire to contest the Presidency when his term as Secretary-General expires in two months stating that “Every citizen who is ready for any post has the right to aspire for it...I am ready to serve Egypt as long as I believe it is necessary for me to serve it.”

Moussa is popular among many Egyptians despite his career in the Mubarak administration due in part to his willingness to challenge government positions on various sensitive issues such as the Israeli-Palestinian conflict and the US invasion of Iraq. While his criticisms incensed US and Israeli officials, they seemed to have endeared him to local Egyptians. Moussa is said to be highly respected even among supporters of the Muslim Brotherhood.

While Moussa commands a high degree of domestic legitimacy, his administration style may be a cause of concern for those wishing to see an end to corruption in the Egyptian political system. Accusations of cronyism have been levelled at Moussa by former and current Arab League staff. In addition, it is unclear if Moussa has or can get the endorsement of the Army since he is not a military man.

The dynamics affecting the presidential race suggest that coalitions between the contenders might have to be formed since no candidate seems strong enough to assume the reins of government unassisted. It is for this reason that the formation of an interim government until September when elections take place is strategically beneficial to all contenders. This would allow them to be better prepared as they can formulate election strategies, establish coalitions and canvass support.

The question at the heart of the matter is whether Egypt is likely to replace the current regime with an Islamist one. The answer is a resounding ‘NO’.

The reasons for this include: (a) An Islamic state with the enforcement of Sharia law would change the whole fabric of Egyptian life and not necessarily for the better; (b) the advantages of having a purely Islamic regime have yet to be proven. What Egyptians do want is a state that is guided by Islamic principles that protects fundamental human rights and facilitates social and economic progress to all.

This implies that candidates campaigning on a purely Islamist platform are not particularly appealing - a fact recognised by the Muslim Brotherhood, which accounts for its willingness to enter into dialogue with El Baradei.

Although it remains unclear as to whom the next president will be, 2011 will definitely be a year of political change in Egypt, especially as Mubarak’s international supporters prepare to abandon ship.

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About the Author

Damien Cheong (PhD) is an Adjunct Research Fellow at the Global Terrorism Research Centre, Monash University, Australia.

Other articles by this Author

All articles by Damien Cheong

Creative Commons LicenseThis work is licensed under a Creative Commons License.

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