Vic Libs smart anti-Greens preference strategy

The minute I looked at our polling I understood what was going on.

In line with the quantitative polls ours suggests that the Liberals are close to winning. They need a 6.5% swing to win the election and when you analyse voters by how they intend to vote this election against how they voted last election that looks possible.

The table below shows that analysis, although you have to be careful to take into account that percentages shown are for just those intending to vote in a particular way, not the entire sample. So 50% of a group representing 14% is only 7% of the total sample.

17% of those who intend to vote Liberal this election voted Labor last election. Assuming all other things are equal, and that the Liberal Primary vote is around 39% this is a swing of around 6.5%. So the Liberals are close.

At the same time 16% of the Labor vote this time voted Greens last time, but 52% of the Greens vote was Labor four years ago.

Given the relative sizes in the votes this is more or less churning. Labor is polling somewhere around 37%, according to Newspoll and 16% of this is 6%. The Greens are polling around 14% and 52% of this is 7%.

But why have these voters changed their allegiances?

Let's look at the Labor to Liberal vote first. The responses are typical of protest votes. No-one is voting for the Liberals, they are voting against Labor. "Liberals won't win, but Labor needs a kick up the proverbial." Male, 35-44, Lawyer

Reasons for moving from Labor to Greens are often couched in terms of issues, but ultimately mostly come down to a desire to change the behaviour of the government. Some of these behaviours, such as ones to do with the environment and climate change, are not issues that the Liberals could plausibly do anything to satisfy; but others to do with public transport are.

And there is a general feeling that Labor has been in long enough, and that a strong third party can deliver a shock to the government, as well as the major party duopoly.

While it isn't stated explicitly, the basis for this surge in Greens vote has to be an expectation that they will have seats in the next parliament and will be in a position to pressure a Labor government.