Keep Rudd away from foreign policy

There are mixed messages for Australia’s foreign policy with the advent of the new Gillard Government and the subsequent distribution of portfolios.

The departure of Kevin Rudd to the back benches will be greeted with a huge sigh of relief for those who believe Australia is just about on course in its international dealings. If Rudd had been asked to stay on in the Ministry he would certainly have been handed Foreign Affairs, with the likelihood he would subject the department to the same inconsistencies and policy reversals that plagued the last few months of his prime ministership.

Rudd is a man who, for the moment at least, has lost his way. He is well advised to take a holiday - there are many who wish that it would be a permanent holiday away from politics - but he has decided to stay on and fight the next election. Gillard showed excellent judgment by refusing to take him into the Ministry immediately and the former PM should use the next few weeks to examine his anal-retentive tendencies.

Should Labor win later this year a job will have to be found for him, but despite his diplomatic experience and Mandarin language skills, he should be steered away from anything that has to do with guiding this country’s foreign policy.

One good reason for this is the present incumbent. Stephen Smith was astonished when he received foreign affairs after Labor’s victory in 2007 - he had expected education - and admitted he would be on a steep learning curve. In fact he has been an accomplished performer and is well on his way to becoming one of Australia’s outstanding Foreign Ministers.

While micro-manager Rudd was always at his shoulder, Smith nevertheless emerged as his own man and his calm, unruffled manner was just what was required when dealing with difficult situations such as the Stern Hu affair and the deteriorating relations with New Delhi over assaults on Indian students.

It is inevitable that a Gillard Government will have a greater emphasis on domestic affairs which could leave Smith with more opportunity to put his own mark on foreign policy. Everything that has been seen of him up to now suggests that this would be a positive development.

However, the shift to issues at home must not come at the expense of a further erosion of resources for the Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade. It has already taken more than its fair share of cuts and anything further would place an unacceptable burden on Australia’s ability to act on the world stage. Contrary to belief in some quarters we do matter internationally and our views are noted, even if we do not always get our way.

The mini-reshuffle that followed Gillard’s elevation to the leadership has seen Smith take on Simon Crean’s trade portfolio. As a temporary measure this is fair enough - the two areas are interconnected and Smith is the best man to keep things ticking along. In the longer term there is a danger he will become distracted from the pressing issues of Australia’s continued involvement in Afghanistan and Iraq, while his ability to promote significant initiatives in the region and further afield will be curtailed.

There are enough important issues in the trade arena - none more than the completion of the Doha Round - for Trade to warrant its own Minister, and Gillard should appoint one if she is still in power after the election.

One thing that will not change is Australia’s close ties with the United States. Those on the left of this argument continue to bemoan this country’s “obsequious” relationship with the superpower, but there is really no logical alternative and nor is it in Australia’s interest to look for closer ties elsewhere. The EU is in turmoil and the nature of the Chinese State means we should be treating it as a valued business partner and no more.

Gillard took the opportunity of their first telephone conversation to assure US President Barack Obama of her commitment to Australia’s Afghanistan policy, and there is certainly no suggestion that the ANZUS Treaty is under review.

While both would deny it, there was no great chemistry between Rudd and Obama and we could benefit from the change. It will be intriguing to see how America’s first black president gets on with Australia’s first woman Prime Minister when the two eventually meet - possibly on Gillard’s home soil if the president’s much-postponed visit Down Under finally takes place, now almost certainly after the Federal election, and assuming that Gillard and Labor are still in charge.

One topic that will not be on the agenda is Rudd’s plan for an Asia-Pacific Community. Launched with great fanfare just over two years ago, the proposal was ill-conceived, clumsily constructed and thrust on Asian leaders without warning. It spoke more of Rudd’s personal convictions than any serious attempt to get a dialogue going and actually revived the perception - never far below the surface in Asia - of the ugly Anglo Saxon trying to dictate to its neighbours.

A much easier way forward is through the Trans Pacific Partnership, whose ultimate aim is a multilateral, free trade zone across the Pacific. The TPP is already up and running, the US and Australia are members along with New Zealand, Singapore, Chile, Brunei, Peru and Vietnam - at first sight a disparate grouping but nevertheless with a combined population of 470 million and GDP of $17.7 trillion.

The Chief Executive of the US Studies Centre at the University of Sydney, Geoffrey Garrett, believes the TPP is an easy way for Obama to burnish his image as the “Pacific President”. “Supporting the TPP can signal his bona fides with respect to free trade and the fact he is interested in regional integration in the Asia-Pacific,” Garrett says.

“At the same time he will not have to test it with a vote in Congress any time soon, because it is going to take a long time before all the details are negotiated. He can also project it as a high-quality, multilateral free trading arrangement that Japan, Korea and ultimately China could join.

“That is the big vision - a way towards an Asia-Pacific Free Trade Area that doesn’t grow directly out of APEC with all the problems associated with that, including Taiwan’s participation.”

All of which will require firm and experienced hands on the tiller when Obama finally makes Australian shores. Whether the steering is done by Labor or the Coalition will be decided, possibly before winter has released its grip on Canberra.