Like what you've read?

On Line Opinion is the only Australian site where you get all sides of the story. We don't
charge, but we need your support. Here�s how you can help.

  • Advertise

    We have a monthly audience of 70,000 and advertising packages from $200 a month.

  • Volunteer

    We always need commissioning editors and sub-editors.

  • Contribute

    Got something to say? Submit an essay.


 The National Forum   Donate   Your Account   On Line Opinion   Forum   Blogs   Polling   About   
On Line Opinion logo ON LINE OPINION - Australia's e-journal of social and political debate

Subscribe!
Subscribe





On Line Opinion is a not-for-profit publication and relies on the generosity of its sponsors, editors and contributors. If you would like to help, contact us.
___________

Syndicate
RSS/XML


RSS 2.0

High population growth: good for the rich, bad for the rest of us

By Eric Claus - posted Friday, 21 May 2010


When getting into a debate, it is important to be able to frame the debate in such a way as to give yourself an advantage from the start. Many wealthy promoters of high population growth would like us to believe that the debate about population is a debate about competing values. Pro-population growth advocates see more value in the economic opportunities of population growth and advocates of stable population see more value in being sustainable and protecting the environment.

The hitch in the rich and powerfuls’ economic argument, is that the economic benefits of high population growth are strongly in favour of the rich. This means that their judgment might not be completely unbiased.

The 2006 Productivity Commission Report (Economic Impacts of Migration and Population Growth) initiated by none other than Peter “… one for Mum, one for Dad and one for the country” Costello, clearly states on page 151:

Advertisement
  • Migration has a neutral to mildly positive effect on overall living standards.
  • The distribution of these benefits varies across the population, with gains mostly accrued to the skilled migrants and capital owners. The incomes of existing resident workers grow more slowly than would otherwise be the case.
  • Factors other than migration and population growth are more important to growth in productivity and living standards.

The incomes of existing resident workers grow more slowly than would otherwise be the case.

It is understandable that sustainability is complex and hard to passionately support. It is understandable that the public is slow to support a difficult concept like biodiversity protection. It is amazing, though, that the public is generally in support of a policy which reduces their incomes and specifically increases the wealth of already wealthy people.

Since the rich benefit the most from high immigration and population growth it is not surprising that the richest are the strongest advocates of high immigration and population growth. Richard Pratt wanted 50 million in Australia by 2020 (Australia’s Population Challenge, edited by Vizard, Martin and Watts, Penguin Books, 2003). Another of Australia’s top ten rich list, Harry Triguboff, wants 150 million in Australia and 20 million in Sydney by 2050.

It is more surprising that the average Australian, who will be worse off with high immigration and a fast growing population, hasn’t been angrier about successive government’s high population policies. It isn’t completely unexpected, though, because when society’s “winners”, the rich and powerful, are telling us that we should increase our population and the leadership of both major political parties agree, it must seem like an obvious policy choice.

Of course, community opinions are more shades of grey, than black and white. A recent Business Spectator poll of CEOs found that 91 per cent of CEOs surveyed said that population growth would have a net positive effect on the Australian economy and 79 per cent expected a positive impact on the future of the country. That means 12 per cent of CEOs think that even though population growth is good for the economy, they don’t think it would be good for the future of the country. Apparently all CEOs don’t have the same values as Harry Triguboff.

Advertisement

Our economic and political leaders tell us that population increase is inevitable, as if they had nothing to do with the immigration rates which accounted for two thirds of the population increase last year. Then they tell us that we must learn to accept in-fill developments in our most beautiful suburbs; we must have water restrictions; we must use public transport more often; and we must accept that we won’t be able to live in a detached house on a quarter acre block any more.

They say that paying higher prices for food, electricity, water, housing and transport are just things that are going to happen in the future. Nothing that can be done about it. Some even say that we should learn to be vegetarians, to reduce our ecological footprint. I doubt they are telling any of their wealthy mates that they have to live in a flat and become a vegetarian.

Real estate developers make big profits speculating on increased population, but when a new desalinisation plant is needed to provide water for the people filling up those real estate developments, the government won’t be asking Harry Triguboff to pay for it. They will be asking you and me.

There is plenty our political leaders could do about high population growth, but they don’t want to upset their wealthy mates and they know that there is very little passion for the sustainability argument against high population growth.

Becoming sustainable is something that we will have to do some day. There is no disagreement about that. The critical issues are when and how. The current answers are sometime later, and we’ll decide how, later.

Politically this is completely understandable. The politician’s primary goal is to be elected at the next election, not to make good, long term policy. There is currently very little pressure to be sustainable and immense pressure to be seen to be managing the economy well, in the short term. The most recognisable measure of the health of the economy is Gross Domestic Product (GDP). Increasing the immigration rate and encouraging high population usually increases the GDP even if economic times are tough.

Following the global financial crisis some commentators said that high population growth saved Australia from a technical recession, because even though GDP per capita dropped for four quarters in a row, total GDP decreased in only one quarter. This saved Kevin Rudd from being called the Prime Minister who brought us a recession, despite the average Aussie being worse off.

The Rudd Government is so scared of being seen as a poor economic manager in the short term that they will never reduce immigration rates. Rudd knows that if the GDP increases he will be seen as a good economic manager, even though the average person is poorer than he would have been with low immigration. Second, he won’t get criticised by 79 per cent of Australian CEOs for reducing immigration rates, which would imply that he was a bad economic manager.

High immigration and high population growth are locked in with either of the major political parties and it is our children and grandchildren who will be paying the costs.

When Harry Triguboff’s grandchildren ask him why he didn’t care about green spaces, traffic congestion or the liveability of our cities, he will be able to say; “But I made billions of dollars out of those ideas,” and his grandchildren will probably say “Well, then that is OK, I guess”.

When Kevin Rudd’s grandchildren ask him why he let Australia’s environment deteriorate and our resources run down, he will be able to say “Those policies helped me get re-elected,” and his grandchildren will probably say “Well, then that is OK, I guess”.

When our grandchildren ask us why we didn’t care about traffic congestion, environmental deterioration and depletion of resources, we will have to say “Well, I guess we didn’t think it was that important,” and our grandchildren will probably say “Gee, I wish you would have thought it was a bit more important, then things wouldn’t be quite so tough for us now, but at least you got rich out of using up all those resources and saving money on protecting the environment.”

And we will have to say “No, actually our incomes grew more slowly than if we hadn’t had such high immigration”.

  1. Pages:
  2. 1
  3. 2
  4. All


Discuss in our Forums

See what other readers are saying about this article!

Click here to read & post comments.

17 posts so far.

Share this:
reddit this reddit thisbookmark with del.icio.us Del.icio.usdigg thisseed newsvineSeed NewsvineStumbleUpon StumbleUponsubmit to propellerkwoff it

About the Author

Eric Claus has worked in civil and environmental engineering for over 20 years.

Other articles by this Author

All articles by Eric Claus

Creative Commons LicenseThis work is licensed under a Creative Commons License.

Photo of Eric Claus
Article Tools
Comment 17 comments
Print Printable version
Subscribe Subscribe
Email Email a friend
Advertisement

About Us Search Discuss Feedback Legals Privacy